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UI Election News
UI political scientists examine support for gay marriage in Iowa
As the Iowa Supreme Court prepares to hear a case that could clear the way for gay marriage in Iowa, a poll shows nearly sixty percent of voters in the state favor some type of legal recognition of same-sex relationships in Iowa. In the random, statewide poll of 586 voters, University of Iowa political scientists found that 28 percent of Iowans support same-sex marriage. Another 30 percent support civil unions, not gay marriage. About one in three oppose both. (more)
For topline results, click here.
IEM within less than half percentage point in presidential race prediction
With all the votes counted, the Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the final vote count in this year's presidential election to within a half percentage point. Prices on the IEM's Vote Share Market predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.55 percent of the two-party presidential popular vote, and John McCain would receive 46.45. After the ballots were counted, Obama received 53.2 percent of the vote, and McCain received 46.8 percent, leaving an average error per contract of only .3 percent. (more)
Note: The end of the national election has brought to a close the Iowa Electronic Markets "winner take all" market featured in graphic form on this page since June. For more information, please visit the IEM online.
UI law professor says Obama election moves us closer to racial equality
 Barack Obama's election as president is a huge and historic moment in America's racial history, but one that needs to be tempered by real world considerations, says a University of Iowa law professor and expert on race in the United States. "It's an amazing event because I never believed there would be a black president in my lifetime," said Angela Onwuachi-Willig, a professor in the UI College of Law. "I've always been hopeful about the future of racial equality, and this election renews my faith in our ability as a country to improve race relations." (more)
UI in the National News
Redlawsk comments on youth turnout (Politico, Nov. 4)
Going against the stereotype of the apathetic college kid, youth have been more involved in this election than any in recent memory -- and experts think they will show up at the polls. Experts attribute the jump in interest to an increase in digital-based communication from campaigns, Democratic nominee Barack Obama's appeal to the generation, and increased outreach from the candidates. Obama "specifically reached out to younger voters," said University of Iowa professor DAVID REDLAWSK. "The evidence is that any group of voters, if they're targeted, tends to respond."
Link to article
Colleges report voter turnout (Politico, Nov. 4)
On Election Day, campuses around the country were reporting a huge voter turnout and, for the moment, few problems or instances of voter intimidation. Early voting in Iowa City smashed past records with 43 percent of Johnson County's registered voters having voted by Monday, compared with 37 percent in 2004, according to the Daily Iowan, the student newspaper of the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Today's anticipated large turnout was expected to cause long lines at some polling places there, since Iowa -- along with Wisconsin and Minnesota -- allows same-day registration.
Link to article
IEM traders bullish on Obama (Agence France Presse, Nov. 3)
Wall Street may be a mess, but in the final hours before Tuesday's U.S. election one share just keeps rising: Barack Obama. The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS predict Obama 91.5 percent likely to get in and McCain 8.6 percent. The markets, which are run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA as a research project, found in a study that it had beaten the polls 74 percent of the time over 20 years. This story also appeared on the Web site of THE PENINSULA (Qatar), ABC-TV (Australia), YAHOO! CANADA, and numerous other news organizations.Link to article
Stories about the IEM also appeared on the Web sites of the STRAITS TIMES of Malaysia and MSNBC.com:
Jones discusses troubled electronic voting machines (Nature, November 2008)
DOUGLAS JONES, computer science professor at the University of Iowa, discusses the impact on voting of the many problems affecting electronic voting machines. Link to article
Columnist cites UI poll (Kansas City Star, Nov. 3)
Columnist Bill Tammeus writes, "It's impossible to understand American politics -- including our national election this Tuesday -- without understanding the influence of religion... A recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL said that more than 8 percent of registered American voters think Sen. Barack Obama is a Muslim. Stunning, eh? Is this an understandable case of mistaken identity? No. It's a case of willfully deceitful propaganda having an effect." Link to article
Jones talks about voting scandals (DVICE.com, Nov. 3)
DOUGLAS JONES, voting technology expert at the University of Iowa, says most voting scandals involve ballot design, not technology flaws. From Florida's butterfly ballot in 2000 to this election's straight-ticket issues in Texas, design flaws cause more mis-votes than anything directly related to the machines themselves. The ideal voting machine would use touchscreen technology -- it can present selections more clearly and break down contests into separate screens that voters can scroll through, ensuring that you've made a choice before moving to the next screen. DVICE is a Web site of the SciFi Channel. Link to article
IEM predictions cited (Wall Street Journal MarketWatch, Nov. 2)
If you want to pooh-pooh the pundits and polls and get the real scoop on the likely outcome of Tuesday's presidential election, it's worth taking a look at the political-futures markets. The Iowa Electronic Markets, which opened in 1988, boasts a prediction rate of "closer than the polls 75 percent of the time," said JOYCE BERG, director of IEM and a professor of accounting at the University of Iowa. Link to article
IEM odds are cited (North Jersey Record, Nov. 1)
Columnist Joseph Ax writes that a McCain victory will make winners of those who go against the odds in prediction markets. "Some experts believe that online exchanges, like InTrade.com or the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS at the University of Iowa, are the most accurate predictors of what will happen on Election Day, thanks to the power of free markets." A $1.67 investment in the IEM would pay $10 if McCain won. The column is appearing widely. Link to article
More UI in the National News
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