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UI Election News
Obama price little changed on IEM following Democratic convention
As of 9 a.m. Friday, the price of a Barack Obama contract was trading at 63 cents on the Iowa Electronic Markets' Winner Take All market, little changed from the 60 cents he was trading at when the convention started on Monday. (more)
IEM opens Congressional control prediction market
The Iowa Electronic Markets has opened a Congressional control market, giving traders the opportunity to predict the party alignment of the next Congress. Three markets will be open on the Congressional control market. In the first two, traders can buy and sell contracts that will predict whether the Democrats will gain seats in each of the Senate and House of Representatives, maintain its current number of seats, or lose seats to the Republicans. (more)
Iowans favor Obama in new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain in the battleground state of Iowa among both registered and likely voters, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll. (more)
Poll top-line data
IEM, Minnpost.com team up for Coleman-Franken Minnesota Senate market
The Iowa Electronic Markets has teamed with MinnPost.com to open a political prediction market for the Minnesota Senate race between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken. (more)
UI in the National News
Redlawsk teaches classes from Democratic National Convention (CNN U, Aug. 28)
The first time the 11 University of Iowa students met Associate Professor DAVID REDLAWSK in their political science seminar, they could see former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack over his shoulder while Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar's voice boomed in the background. Redlawsk, a delegate to the Democratic Convention, will be in Denver until Wednesday. But he was also scheduled to begin teaching classes at the university on Monday. Rather than canceling his classes or his trip, Redlawsk turned a scheduling conflict into an opportunity to give his students a firsthand look into a national political convention. This story was first published in THE DAILY IOWAN. (Link to article)
Redlawsk gives students insider's view of national convention (Diverse, Aug. 28)
University of Iowa political scientist DAVID REDLAWSK has been teaching remotely from the convention. Chosen as a delegate, Redlawsk had been scheduled to teach two courses on political campaigns during the convention. His solution was to teach from the convention using Webcams and blogs. Interviewing politicians, campaign staff, journalists, celebrities and delegates about their experiences at the convention, Redlawsk has been posting the interviews online along with his own commentary. A total of 60 students are in the courses. Redlawsk has joined his students live via Webcam to lead discussions. DIVERSE is a newsmagazine that covers higher education. (Link to article)
Redlawsk calls Clinton speech 'home run' (Bloomberg, Aug. 27)
Speaking at the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton asked her supporters to put aside any idea of voting for Republican John McCain and instead back her former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama. DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa professor who attended the convention as a delegate for former candidate John Edwards, said he was impressed with Clinton, who was his third choice for president. "It was a home run, clear and simple," he said. (Link to article)
Rietz: Biden selection had no impact on IEM (Fox Business News, Aug. 25)
THOMAS RIETZ, professor of finance in the Tippie College of Business, said Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential nominee had no effect on prices on the Iowa Electronic Markets. This interview is not available online.
IEM partners with MinnPost.com to predict Senate race (MinnPost.com, Aug. 21)
This week, in partnership with MinnPost.com, the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, the brainchild of a trio of economics professors at the University of Iowa who hatched the idea during the 1988 presidential campaign, is launching a new market this political season: You can put money in the Senate race between Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., and Democrat Al Franken. MinnPost will report on its site how the market is doing. MINNPOST.COM is a Twin Cities-based online news organization that focuses on local and state news in Minnesota. (Link to article)
IEM predicts Obama as frontrunner (Financial Times, Aug. 21)
The summer phony war for the U.S. presidency is about to end. What do markets tell us about the race for the White House? If the prediction markets run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and Intrade are right, Barack Obama is the frontrunner, but no "sure thing." His chances are between 58.4 percent (Intrade) and 59.6 percent (Iowa). These odds had been as high as 72.2 per cent. (Link to article)
Snee: futures markets need more hard information (BBC, Aug. 21)
Internet betting Web sites and prediction markets are registering huge interest in the U.S. presidential election, with trade already far exceeding the total for 2004 in some cases. "Our volume is 600 percent up this presidential cycle, 2008 to date, versus 2004," said John Delaney, chief executive of Dublin-based political futures market Intrade. The "gargantuan" struggle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination had helped to fuel interest, he said, and now the sharp contrast between Mr. Obama and John McCain was having the same effect. According to TOM SNEE of the Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes to reliably predict a result. Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says -- but not at forecasting choices being made inside Barack Obama's or John McCain's head. (Link to article)
IEM investors predict Democrats will win election (New York Times, Aug. 21)
Traders on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, run by the business professors at the University of Iowa, gave the Democratic candidate a 61 percent chance of victory versus 38 percent for the Republican. Contracts on the political prediction exchanges are structured so trading prices are expressed as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. Studies have shown that the predictive power of markets is comparable to that of opinion polls. This Reuters story appeared on several news sites, including ABC News and Yahoo! Finance. Link to article
More UI in the National News
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