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UI in the National Political News
April 2007
Obama Speaks At UI (USA Today, April 22)
A sunny spring Sunday, a grassy slope leading to Iowa's first Capitol, and a charismatic presidential candidate put Iowa City residents in a good mood for Sen. Barack Obama's Earth Day rally in Iowa City. Thousands of people, including UNIVERSITY OF IOWA students, families with children in wagons and strollers, and gray-haired folks sitting in the shade came out Sunday to hear Obama speak at the rally just west of the Old Capitol building.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-04-22-obama-iowa_N.htm
Obama Speaks On UI Campus (Chicago Tribune, April 22)
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama took his campaign to Iowa's largest university campus Sunday to pitch tougher environmental policies and an anti-war message before thousands gathered on Earth Day. "We know that we've got an energy policy that is the absence of an energy policy," Obama said under a warm spring sun on the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's campus.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-070423obama-iowa,1,3558490.story?coll=chi-news-hed
Jones: Electronic Counting Systems Can Work, With Safeguards (BBC, April 18)
In a story about concerns over an electronic vote counting system in Scotland, University of Iowa Associate Professor DOUGLAS JONES, who has studied the accuracy of electronic counting systems, said they can work, provided the correct safeguards are in place. "California law says that after every election they have to select 1 percent of the vote and do a hand count of those ballots to check that the machines counted them accurately," he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/6566563.stm
Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17)
A credible source of information about Chicago's chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, vendors of products and services to major events and others have a direct stake in whether or not an Olympics is staged here. Politicians and civic leaders presumably would want to know whether the city's bid has a chance, so that they wouldn't throw good money after bad. An auction market centered on whether Chicago will win could provide that information, even if there were no huge payoff for hedgers or speculators, said finance professor THOMAS RIETZ at the University of Iowa, a board member of the popular Iowa Electronic Markets. The Iowa market limits wagers to $500 but has an enviable track record in picking the winners of national elections. "Our goal is to aggregate information, which is a different goal than being able to hedge the economic risk associated with something like this," Rietz said. "I don't think it's an outlandish idea."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-0704160447apr17,0,2547860.column?coll=chi-business-hed
Squire Comments On Huckabee Fundraising (Arkansas News, April 17)
Mike Huckabee's 2008 presidential fundraising started slowly even in the states where elections come the quickest. Huckabee received no sizable contributions from donors in Iowa, where Republican caucuses are less than nine months away, according to his campaign finance report for the first quarter of this year. Beyond that, the former Arkansas governor raised a combined $2,725 in New Hampshire and South Carolina, sites of the two earliest 2008 primaries. "I can't recall anybody certainly who's making a serious effort, and Huckabee is making a serious effort here, who hasn't received contributions from the state," PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said Monday.
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2007/04/17/WashingtonDCBureau/341753.html
Jones Challenges Florida Voter Machine Finding (Wired, April 17)
Symptoms consistent with a known software flaw in a popular electronic voting machine surfaced widely in a controversial election in Sarasota County, Florida, last November, despite county officials' claims that a bug played no role in the election results. A group of computer scientists who examined the source code for Florida said no bug in the software -- including the smoothing filter flaw -- would have produced the under votes. But on Friday two other computer scientists challenged the source-code review and other tests conducted on the machines, and said more extensive tests are needed. DOUG JONES, a University of Iowa computer scientist who used to test voting machines for his state, agrees with the latter assessment and says the filter could have caused some under votes in the race but not all of them.
http://www.wired.com/politics/onlinerights/news/2007/04/evotinganalysis
Redlawsk: Tancredo May Force Immigration Issue (Denver Post, April 17)
Colorado Congressman and Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo said he plans to campaign primarily in Iowa and New Hampshire and is aiming to place third or fourth in the Jan. 14 Iowa Caucuses. That's a distinct possibility, said DAVID REDLAWSK, a political-science professor at the University of Iowa who has done recent polling showing that GOP caucus-goers believe immigration is an important issue. "Iowa caucuses don't always reward those with the most money," he said. "The role of a one-issue candidate like Tancredo is to try and force the front-runners to talk about illegal immigration. It's not clear if that will happen yet, but he could develop a certain amount of support for his position."
http://origin.denverpost.com/news/ci_5682750
Squire: Iowa Still Important Caucus State, Despite Moves (Omaha World Herald, April 16)
While more and more states are moving their presidential primaries and caucuses up in the parties' nominating schedules to gain more influence, analysts say the move is backfiring. "It was a great idea for the first couple of states that wanted to move up, but when all the states began jumping on the bandwagon, it diluted the impact for all of them," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. Squire and others say that many of the candidates will be forced to focus their time and money on the first three or four states in the selection process: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. "I don't think anyone is going to risk minimizing Iowa this time around. It didn't work for candidates in the past, and I can't imagine anyone banking on that strategy this time," Squire said. Registration is required to access this site.
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=2366392
Squire Comments On GOP Race (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, April 15)
Political scientist PEVERILL SQUIRE of the University of Iowa says Republican presidential hopeful and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's reticence to distance himself too much from George W. Bush is understandable, given that Bush still commands the support of many GOP voters and given the value Squire says Republicans traditionally have placed on loyalty to their leaders. "At the same time, (Bush) is a very unpopular president, and he's losing support even within his own party. And you have to be able to demonstrate, even to Republican voters, that you have something to offer other than four more years of Bush and Cheney," Squire said. "For the Republicans, this really is a delicate issue."
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=591536
Romney Closing Gap In UI Poll (St. Petersburg Times, April 15)
An opinion piece in support of GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney observes that the Massachusetts governor is closing the gap in the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll of GOP caucus attenders.
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/04/15/Opinion/Mitt_Romney__a_change.shtml
Iowa Electronic Markets Inspired Farmetrics (Garden City Telegram, April 14)
The Iowa Electronic Markets, or IEM, has allowed students throughout the world to not only learn about and forecast the outcome of political events, but also make a little money if their predictions are right. IEM started in 1988 out of the efforts of faculty at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA who wanted the market prediction Web site to be an Internet-based teaching and research tool for other teachers and students across the country and world. The market-based Web site's success that led Bill Towles and others to create Farmetrics, the first prediction market tailored to U.S. agribusiness. The Garden City Telegram is published in Kansas.
http://testing.gctelegram.com/view.cgi?cat=News&state=story&id=52063
Crop Prediction Contest Based On IEM (Arkansas Democrat Gazette, April 12)
"Farmetrics" is an innovative contest that collects and shares crop information from participants around the United States, and it's noted that the concept is borrowed from the Iowa Electronic Markets. Farmetrics participants submit predictions for local planted acreage, yield, and harvested acreage for such major crops as corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. The concept for the contest is based on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, established in 1988 by the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business to predict the winner of the U.S. presidential election.
http://www.nwanews.com/adg/Business/187121/
Stock-Option Abuses Called Far-Reaching (Kansas City Star, April 12)
Wall Street's stock-options scandal is far larger than the 200 or so companies swept up in investigations and lawsuits, said the Iowa professor who found the problem. ERIK LIE, an associate professor of finance at the University of Iowa, made the comment Monday in Kansas City. He was here to discuss the options-backdating scandal with other academics and financial executives. The scandal stemmed from discoveries that companies had granted stock options to executives on dates when the stock's price was noticeably low. The options allowed executives to buy shares later at that low price. Lie found that stock options generally had been granted on dates so favorable to executives that they had to have been picked sometime later, after the stock price had risen.
http://www.kansascity.com/206/story/64657.html
Squire Notes Bias Skewed Literary Digest Poll (Tampa Tribune, April 10)
A story about the Literary Digest's 1936 poll that predicted Alf Landon would defeat Franklin Roosevelt notes several reasons why it failed. One of them was that the magazine sent postcards to respondents to be mailed back after they were completed. The voluntary responses -- having respondents return the postcards themselves -- also introduced bias, noted a 1988 analysis by University of Iowa political scientist PEVERILL SQUIRE. Landon supporters were more likely to return them.
http://www.tbo.com/news/politics/MGBEC40SB0F.html
Iowa Poll: Race Not Important, Gender May Be (USA Today, April 10)
"Iowa's registered voters do not consider race and gender key factors in their presidential choice," but gender does matter "more to men and Republicans than it does to women and Democrats," according to a poll done in the state by political scientists at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. The survey also seems to show that while many Iowans say race and gender don't matter much to them, they may be problems for some candidates because of how other people feel.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/04/iowa_poll_race_.html
Romney Rising In 2008 Race, Polling Shows (Gulf Times, April 9)
After months of intense campaigning in Iowa, and several weeks after revealing that cancer had returned to haunt his wife, Elizabeth, John Edwards led Hillary Clinton in a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll conducted between March 19 and 31, earning the support of 34 percent of likely voters, compared with the former first lady's 29 percent. Obama trailed with 19 percent. Time Magazine and CNN polls are also cited in this article. The Gulf Times is published in Doha, Qatar.
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=142673&version=1&template_id=43&parent_id=19
A version of this article citing the UI poll also appeared in TurkishPress.com, published in Plymouth, Mich.
http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=170416
UI Poll Cited In Article On Democrats, Immigration (The Politico, April 9)
A UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll of 1,290 registered Iowa voters, set to be released this week, found that about 40 percent of Democrats identified immigration as a "very important" issue, with nearly every voter surveyed saying it was either very or somewhat important. About 60 percent of Republicans called the issue "very important." This was part of an article on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's visit to Burlington, Iowa, where she discussed immigration. The Politico is published in Washington, D.C.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0407/3462.html
Edwards Leads Democratic Race In UI Poll (Capitol Hill Blue, April 10)
After months of intense campaigning in Iowa, and several weeks after revealing that cancer had returned to haunt his wife Elizabeth, John Edwards led Hillary Clinton in a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll conducted between March 19 and 31, earning the support of 34 percent of likely voters, compared to the former first lady's 29 percent. Barack Obama trailed with 19 percent. Capitol Hill Blue is published in Washington, D.C.
http://www.capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/2211
Poll Cites Race, Gender In Presidential Race (Wall Street Journal, April 9)
Iowa voters may not have a problem voting for candidates who don't share their same gender or race, but some think their neighbors might. In a poll of 1,290 registered Iowa votes released today, UNIVERSITY OF IOWA researchers found that race and gender aren't a limiting factor for voters in the abstract. But the poll also suggested that voters have some doubts about the electability of specific candidates, on both the Democratic and Republican side. "While most likely Democratic caucus goers said a candidate's race or gender would not influence their vote, they perceived race and gender as possible obstacles for Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama," according to the researchers. "Likely Republican caucus goers," they said, "viewed John McCain's moderateness and Rudy Giuliani's pro-choice stance as greater obstacles than Mitt Romney's Mormonism."
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/04/09/voters-see-race-gender-obstacles-for-'08-candidates/
UI Law Student Was Part Of Obama Youth Movement (Washington Times, April 9)
The youth movement manifested itself even before Barack Obama officially announced his campaign, with young supporters begging him to join the race. Independents for Obama (http://independents.forobama.org) was started by Seth Tobey, a law student at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA.
http://americasnewspaper.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=Publishing&mod=Publications%3A%3AArticle&mid=8F3A7027421841978F18BE895F87F791&tier=4&id=5A938D9288B04110BE0CC9DCC27AC1E4
UI Poll Shows Edwards In Lead (Louisville Courier-Journal, April 9)
Syndicated columnist Dewayne Wickham notes that although the media are treating John Edwards as an also-ran, he is the leading choice among probable caucus-goers in Iowa. According to a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll, Edwards is favored by 34.2 percent of likely voters in that state's 2008 caucus. Clinton has the support of 28.5 percent of these voters and Obama is backed by just 19.3 percent.
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070406/OPINION04/704060384/1054/OPINION
Redlawsk Comments On GOP race (USA Today, April 7)
No clear favorite is emerging in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. "Significant numbers are really undecided," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political scientist. Short of someone else catching fire or entering the race, he said, "in a year where Republican caucus-goers are focused on electability, they may ultimately hold their nose and pick one of the three." The Caspar Star Tribune is published in Wyoming. This AP story is appearing widely in the United States and internationally.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-04-07-republican-president_N.htm?POE=NEWISVA
Rietz Describes Iowa Electronic Markets (Dispatch-Argus, April 7)
The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), supervised by University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business faculty, have shown that a political prediction market can forecast the outcome of an election better than national polls. "We run markets tied to outcomes of the election," said THOMAS RIETZ, a UI finance professor. "People can sign up with us on the Internet. The contracts we trade have values that apply to the election outcome. People are more willing to pay more for candidates they think are more likely to win." Research shows that the markets predict the election outcome 76 percent of the time.
http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=333392
UI Poll: Cancer Not Overshadowing Edwards Bid (Dallas Morning News, April 5)
A handmade sign said it all: "Iowa Lives Strong For Elizabeth." It was one of the many signs voters waved in two days of town hall meetings Elizabeth attended across Iowa this week with her husband, Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards. A new UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll showed Edwards leading the Democratic field, 34 percent to 28 percent for Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and 19 percent for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. The story also appeared in the AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN of Texas.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/040607dnpoledwards.266932e.html
UI Political Poll Cited (Southwest Florida Herald Tribune, April 5)
A recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll names New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Giuliani as the top presidential picks in Iowa, which will host the first presidential caucus.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070405/BLOG29/70405008&start=1
Column Notes UI Poll (The Oregonian, April 5)
A column about Mitt Romney's prospects in the 2008 presidential race notes that he polls well in states where he has campaigned or is better known. For example, a new UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll has McCain at 21 percent, Giuliani at 20 percent and Romney at 17 percent among the state's likely GOP caucus-goers.
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/david_reinhard/index.ssf?/base/editorial/1175734544160890.xml&coll=7
Squire Comments On Obama Campaign (Bloomberg, April 5)
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's report that he raised $25 million from 100,000 donors couldn't have come at a better time, allowing him to trump front-runner Hillary Clinton after weeks of stumbles on the campaign trail. Obama, 45, has seen his poll numbers stall in early-voting states and has tripped up at some campaign events. At a March 24 forum in Las Vegas where other candidates outlined specific health-care proposals, he twice told questioners that his campaign was still developing a plan. "The good news for Obama is that his problems are occurring very early in the race when relatively few voters are really paying close attention," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political science professor at the University of Iowa in Iowa City.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aPTAtKUv0nNM&refer=home
Edwards Leads In Poll (KEYC-TV, April 4)
Former Sen. John Edwards, a Democratic presidential hopeful, kicked off another Iowa tour with a stop at Cedar Rapids High School last night. It came just hours after the release of the latest UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll that shows Edwards leading his fellow democratic candidates among likely caucus voters. The TV station is based in Mankato, Minn.
http://www.keyc.tv/article/view/119083/
UI Poll: GOPers Troubled By Romney's Mormonism (Hartford Courant, April 4)
Mitt Romney sprinted to the front of the Republican presidential pack this week by announcing he's raised $20.6 million in three months. But his quest for the nomination still faces a host of hurdles that the political world thinks could be tough to overcome. Romney, whose term as Massachusetts governor ended in January, must confront serious questions about his three R's: religion, roots and record. The latest UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll -- conducted March 19 to 31 and released Tuesday -- put Romney third behind Giuliani and McCain among GOP voters likely to attend the first-in-the-nation caucus Jan. 14. Among Republicans who told the UI poll they probably would attend their party caucus, nearly half said they agreed with this statement: "The fact that Mitt Romney is a Mormon will be a problem for him." Other surveys have found similar concerns.
http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-romney0404.artapr04,0,140475.story?&track=rss
Redlawsk Comments On Tancredo Candidacy (Rocky Mountain News, April 3)
Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo declared his long-shot candidacy for the Republican nomination for president this week, and while some observers say they won't bother to pay attention to his campaign, others are. "What are the caucuses about if they're not about expectations?" said DAVID REDLAWSK, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "What he has to do to get attention is beat expectations. When the expectations are next to zero, it may be possible to do that."
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/elections/article/0,2808,DRMN_24736_5460712,00.html
UI Poll Puts Edwards, McCain In Front (Yahoo News, April 3)
A new UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll shows that among Iowa's likely Democratic caucus goers, John Edwards leads Hillary Clinton 34 percent to 29 percent. Barack Obama followed with 19 percent. Among Iowa's likely Republican caucus goers, the UI poll found Sen. John McCain with a slight lead over Rudy Giuliani 21 percent to 20 percent. Mitt Romney came in third with 17 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20070404/cm_rcp/new_ca_ia_and_nh_2008_polls
A story on the same poll appeared in the NEW YORK SUN: http://www.nysunpolitics.com/blog/2007/04/romney-in-iowa-dont-believe-the.html
Squire Comments On Tancredo's Focus On Immigration (Denver Post, April 3)
Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo declared his candidacy for the Republican nomination for president in Iowa Monday and says immigration reform will be his top priority. While most of the leading GOP candidates favor an immigration position similar to the Bush plan, which provides a path to legal status for illegal immigrants, Tancredo may change that, said University of Iowa political science professor PEVERILL SQUIRE. The opportunity to shape the Republican debate on immigration may pull candidates further to the right. "That is not necessarily a good thing for the GOP in the long run," Squire said, referring to the general election. "The extreme of the immigration debate loses many independents."
http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_5579665
Squire: Dodd Fundraising Totals Make Him An Also-Ran (Hartford Courant, April 3)
His strategists insist they are still confident, but others are calling the $4 million that Chris Dodd has raised for his 2008 presidential bid unexpectedly low and a damaging setback to his campaign. Campaign finance expert Anthony J. Corrado Jr. Monday called the Connecticut Democrat's number a "disappointment," and PEVERILL SQUIRE, professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said it "puts Dodd in the also-ran column." "To be honest," Squire said, "I had been primed for a larger number, given his wealth of connections within the Democratic establishment, the insurance industry of Connecticut and his perch on a key regulation-writing committee." Dodd is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.
http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-dodd0403.artapr03,0,6738819.story?coll=hc-headlines-home
IEM Cited As Successful Prediction Market (Philadelphia Inquirer, April 3)
An editorial about an electronic prediction market established for the Philadelphia mayor's race says that prediction markets have proven successful, citing the ongoing success of the Iowa Electronic Market at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA in predicting national elections.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20070403_Editorial____Mayoral_Electronic_Market.html
Redlawsk: Edwards Not Hurt By Cancer News (News & Observer, April 2)
A University of Iowa poll found that John Edwards' support in Iowa was not damaged by the disclosure of his wife cancer. Among Democratic caucus-goers, Edwards still leads the field. His support rose among female caucus-goers but fell among men. "Obviously it will be some time before the full impact of the situation sinks in, and Edwards' chances in the future likely hinge at least in part on how the public perceives his ability to balance the challenge of running for president with the challenge of Elizabeth Edwards' medical condition," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political science professor who oversaw the poll. The News & Observer is published in Raleigh-Durham, N.C.
http://www.newsobserver.com/114/story/559980.html
Columnist Discusses IEM (Philadelphia Inquirer, April 1)
Columnist Chris Satullo writes, "So you think you know which guy is going to win the topsy-turvy Philadelphia mayor's race. Wanna bet? Now you have a chance. Legally. For the cause of research. The Great Expectations project, cosponsored by The Inquirer and the University of Pennsylvania, has arranged what is called an 'electronic prediction market' on the mayoral election... This project will be run through the Iowa Electronic Markets, one of the oldest and most successful. IEM is a nonprofit research enterprise run by the TIPPIE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA."
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/currents/20070401_Center_Square___Heres__5__pick_the_winner.html
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