UI in the National Political News

March 2007

Redlawsk Comments On Edwards' Announcement (New York Times, March 24)
Will the announcement of John Edwards' wife's cancer affect the campaign? DAVID REDLAWSK, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, said he thought the passions stirred by the decision to continue in the race could have a continuing impact, strengthening support for the Edwards campaign among some people, eroding it among others. "It was a very emotional feeling to watch this," said Redlawsk, who has worked for Democrats and Republicans but backed Mr. Edwards in the 2004 Iowa Caucuses. "You could see the connection these two have to each other, John and Elizabeth," he said. "For me it went to my core."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/24/us/politics/24illness.html?_r=1

Story Explains Iowa Electronic Markets (MSNBC, March 22)
The longest-running online market for political prognostication is up and running -- and there are already a couple of front-runners.  For now, it's Obama and Giuliani. The idea behind the Iowa Electronic Markets is relatively simple, if unorthodox: You trade contracts in the various candidates or parties as if they were offerings on a commodities market, at prices ranging from zero to $1. After the election, each contract pays off $1 if you predicted the correct outcome -- and nothing for the losers. "We like to say this is not rocket science, it's just a case of putting your money where your mouth is," said GEORGE NEUMANN, an economics professor at the University of Iowa and one of the market's inventors.
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/03/22/98973.aspx

Squire Comments On Brownback's Credentials (Kansas City Star, March 21)
A story about the presidential campaign of U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas notes that his main advantage, according to analysts, is his consistency on conservative issues. Said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a University of Iowa political science professor: "He doesn't have some of the questions about his credentials that others do." The same story appeared on the Web sites of the BOSTON GLOBE, CENTRE DAILY TIMES in Pennsylvania, WYOMING NEWS, SEATTLE POST INTELLIGENCER, FORBES, FOX NEWS, GUARDIAN (UK), HOWELL (Utah) TIMES AND TRANSCRIPT, CONTRA COSTA TIMES of California, WHDH-TV in Massachusetts and numerous other news organizations.
http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/news/state/16943466.htm

Slate to Publish IEM Data (Slate.com, March 20)
Slate, the daily online magazine, has launched a 2008 Political Futures Database, which utilizes data from three prediction markets to forecast the outcome of 2008 Presidential and Congressional races. One From Tuesday march 20 until Election Day 2008, Slate will publish hourly updates of the key data from the three prediction markets: the Iowa Electronic Markets at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, ntrade.com, and Casualobserver.net, beginning with the Republican and Democratic Presidential primary races and adding 2008 Congressional races.
http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/

Squire: Iowa 'Make Or Break' In Races (Christian Science Monitor, March 16)
The field of hopefuls is big in 2008, so Iowans may actually need the extra time to vet everyone. Moreover, come January, their caucus votes, are expected to hold even more sway over the nomination process than usual. With the presidential primary calendar becoming front-loaded with big states like California, candidates who don't perform well in Iowa and New Hampshire will have a harder time catching up to the early front-runners. "If you don't do well in Iowa, it will be hard to sustain your campaign much farther. For almost every candidate, Iowa will be make or break," says PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "We're seeing a lot of activity from the candidates and a surprising amount of attention from potential caucus-goers."
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0316/p01s01-uspo.html?page=1

IEM Conducted Hurricane Futures Market (South Florida Sun Sentinel, March 13)
Starting Monday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began offering contracts covering the arrival of the first three hurricanes in Florida and four other coastal regions during the 2007 hurricane season. These contracts, which are an extension of the CME's existing weather contract market, provide insurance firms, oil companies, utilities and others an opportunity to cover risks not protected by traditional insurance policies. In 2005, the Iowa Electronic Markets at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science opened a small hurricane futures market limited to academics. The newspaper is based in Florida.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/sfl-zfutures13mar13,0,3359888.story?coll=sfla-business-headlines

UI Student Launches Independents For Obama (Washington Times, March 7)
The 2008 road to the White House is filled with pitfalls for senators; specifically, their voting records -- a particularly acute problem for Democrats who approved the Iraq war. But Sen. Barack Obama has served in the Senate for only two years, and some analysts say the Illinois Democrat's lack of a voting record may uniquely benefit his presidential campaign. "He inspires hope that we can get past the days of bickering and fighting that [have] controlled the debate in Washington, and I think he has proven he can work across party lines," said Seth Tobey, a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA law student who founded Independents for Obama.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20070306-103631-1589r.htm

Writer: UI Political Futures Markets Very Accurate (China Post, March 7)
In an editorial, Sabastian Mallaby, concludes that amateur traders on the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's political futures market predict elections more accurately than professional pollsters. He writes about how four decades ago, a Chicago economist named Eugene Fama proclaimed that financial markets are efficient. The march of this thesis from the fringe to the mainstream is one of reason's sweetest triumphs. Despite periodic bouts of

Op-Ed Column Cites UI Markets (Sacramento Bee, March 6)
Columnist Sebastian Mallaby writes that despite periodic bouts of wantonly irrational investor behavior, most people now accept that financial markets -- indeed, all markets in which people trade views about the future -- are the least bad way of processing information. He said politicians have a special reason to respect the wisdom of markets. Amateur traders on the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA'S political futures market predict elections more accurately than professional pollsters. The same story appeared on the Web site of the HARTFORD COURANT.
http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/132910.html

Polgreen: Markets Can Predict Flu (Scientific American, March 1)
Is a bird flu pandemic coming? Health experts say there is no way to know, and especially no way to know when. But someone does know, or, rather, the combined experience of a lot of someones -- doctors and nurses treating the odd human patient, microbiologists studying virus samples and virus experts studying disease patterns. A new "market" launched on Thursday aims to take advantage of this combined knowledge to predict any actual pandemic. "We have been doing this on a very local level in Iowa to predict seasonal influenza," said Dr. PHIL POLGREEN, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Iowa and director of the Infectious Disease Society of America's Emerging Infections Network. The same story appeared on the Web site of REUTERS.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa001&articleID=D1A143E596968B69CF21CE65F88B6159

UI Opens Avian Flu Prediction Market (NPR Marketplace, March 1)
Starting today, doctors and other health experts will be able to "bet" on the likelihood of an avian flu pandemic using a new predictive market at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2007/03/01/AM200703015.html

Polgreen: Prediction Market Borrows Concept From Farmers (MSNBC, March 1)
In an unusual effort to better predict the advance of a potential flu
pandemic, public health experts will be staked about $100 apiece to bet on the spread of bird flu. This type of futures market has also been created to predict hurricanes. In this case, the goal is to develop a faster way to collect expert opinion about the potential spread of a deadly disease outbreak. "Farmers have used futures markets for decades to make decisions about what crops to plant. We're just borrowing that concept to help people in public health and health care make decisions about the future," said Dr. PHIL POLGREEN, a University of Iowa assistant professor of medicine who helped create the project. The same story appeared on the Web sites of the WASHINGTON POST, PHYSORG.COM, PORTSMOUTH (NH) HERALD, HELENA (Mont.) RECORD, CASPER (Wyo.) STAR TRIBUNE, HARTFORD COURANT, SEATTLE POST INTELLIGENCER, LOS ANGELES TIMES, ST. PAUL PIONEER PRESS, PHILADELPHIA INQURER, NEWSDAY, WORCESTER (Mass.) DAILY TELEGRAM, CBS NEWS, ABC NEWS, WHNS-TV (SC), KSTP-TV (Minneapolis-St. Paul) CTV (Canada) and numerous other news organizations.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17388954/