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UI in the National Political News
November 2007
UI student comments on Oprah endorsement (New York Times, Nov. 30)
The impact of Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Barack Obama is yet to be measured. Kate Anderson, a student at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA in Iowa City, said she loves watching Oprah and that she and her mother "religiously read everything she has to say" in her magazine. She said she likes Obama and while the endorsement is not the only reason, it is part of the reason. "I think what Oprah stands for to me is a sense of moving forward and hope, which I think is what Obama has come to stand for," she said. Link to article
IEM shows shift to 'rest of the field' (Scripps News, Nov. 30)
There's some interesting wagering in the presidential contest, based on an Electronic Trading Market being conducted by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. The graphs show Rudy Giuliani as the odds-on favorite, leading Mitt Romney. But in recent weeks there has been a surge in betting on the "Rest of Field" pick, coinciding with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's rise in the polls. On the Democratic side, a vast majority of money remains on Hillary Clinton. But after stagnating over the summer, Barack Obama has started to regain some betting interest. Link to article
Squire comments on Bill Clinton impact (Washington Post/Reuters, Nov. 30)
Former President Bill Clinton raised eyebrows when he said he had always been against the Iraq War. "It reminds people of two things that Senator Clinton would rather have them forget: One is sort of the Clintons' veracity, and it just raises the question of who was in favor of the Iraq war," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a visiting University of Iowa political scientist. Link to article
Gronbeck, Redlawsk note youth impact in caucus (Dallas Morning News, Nov. 30)
With the Iowa caucuses less than 40 days away, presidential candidates from both parties are aggressively courting the state's young voters. Yet a big youth turnout seems unlikely Jan. 3, when the state becomes the first in the nation to vote. Because the parties moved the date of the caucuses up, most college students in Iowa will be away on holiday break. In 2004, young people accounted for 21 percent of eligible voters in Iowa, said BRUCE GRONBECK, a professor at the University of Iowa. Gronbeck said campaigns are doing more to cater directly to students by using Web sites like Facebook, MySpace and YouTube. "It's part of the notion that if you can get a young person into your social network, you can get them into your political network as well," he said. A University of Iowa poll in October showed that 41 percent of Democrats younger than 45 supported Barack Obama. "We've gotten clear indication that Obama's support comes disproportionately from younger people," said DAVID REDLAWSK, an associate professor who conducted the poll. "They make up the largest portion of his base, and he's doing best among that group." The article also appeared in the KANSAS CITY STAR and MIAMI HERALD. Link to article
Squire comments on GOP sparring (News and Observer, Nov. 30)
At Wednesday's CNN/YouTube debate, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani accused former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney of running a "sanctuary mansion" because Romney had illegal immigrants doing yard work at his home. Rarely has the level of personal nastiness among Republican contenders -- beyond simple policy disagreements -- risen so early and been conducted so openly by the candidates themselves and their campaigns. "Clearly, the candidates are beginning to more directly attack each other," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a visiting political scientist at the University of Iowa. "Certainly between Giuliani and Romney it's getting personal." The newspaper is based in Raleigh, N.C. Link to article
Iraq war issue cited in UI Hawkeye Poll (The Nation, Nov. 30)
Polls show that the war is still the No. 1 issue for Iowa Democrats, leading healthcare and the economy by a comfortable margin. A number of polls from May through October showed Hillary Clinton to be the favorite among that broad sector of Democratic voters who may not be political junkies but who still cite the war as their top issue. In an Oct. 29 UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL, for example, Clinton leads Barack Obama by 2 points overall but by 15 among voters whose top priority is ending the war. David Goodner, a senior at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and a member of its antiwar committee, commented about a anti-war protest at Clinton's campaign office in Des Moines: "We did this because Hillary voted for the war in Iraq and refuses to apologize for it, because her rhetoric...is not only imprecise but also contradicts her public comments that she won't withdraw all the troops before 2013, because she voted for pro-war with Iran measures...and for her general hawkish foreign policy stances." Link to article
Campaigns use student contact information (Chronicle of Higher Education, Nov. 30)
Political campaigns are going after students through contact information that public colleges are required to release. Third-party requests for students' contact information are in line with most state open-records laws. Under the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act, the federal law that governs student records, college officials do not need a student's consent to release directory information. Most institutions charge an hourly rate to third parties, including student groups, to recoup the costs of providing databases of directory information. Colleges typically set a minimum charge of one hour's worth of work, and many campus officials say the work usually does not exceed that. As a result, at institutions like Oregon, the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, and Ohio State University, lists of tens of thousands of students and their phone numbers or e-mail addresses would probably cost less than $100 per request. Ohio State and Iowa, like Oregon, have received a handful of requests from political campaigns for student-contact information. Link to article
Squire discusses Bill Clinton's Iraq remark (USA Today, Nov. 28)
It was a partial clause in a sentence uttered in Muscatine, Iowa. But Bill Clinton's assertion Monday that he'd opposed the Iraq war "from the beginning" triggered outbursts across the political spectrum. From the left, the right and the media establishment, the judgment was the former president had committed a gaffe that could hurt his wife's presidential bid. University of Iowa political scientist PEVERILL SQUIRE said Clinton's remark may revive concern about his wife's vote to authorize war. "It's undoubtedly a distraction," he said. Link to article
UI Poll: Hispanics a new force in Iowa (Denver Post, Nov. 27)
The influx of Latinos to Marshalltown, with its large meatpacking plant, and elsewhere across Iowa has changed the political dynamics in what was one of the most homogeneous states in America. Democrats are trying to woo Latino voters. Between 15,000 and 18,000 Hispanics are registered to vote in Iowa and are eligible to attend the state's primary caucuses. They could make up a pivotal bloc in the Democratic caucuses, which drew 124,000 voters in 2004. The partisan divide over immigration was underscored in a recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll of likely caucus-goers. The survey found that two-thirds of Republicans rated immigration as either the most important or a highly important issue. Only about one-third of Democrats ranked the issue so high. Link to article
Gronbeck: Oprah, Obama are perfect match (New York Daily News, Nov. 27)
A story about the endorsement of Barack Obama by talk show host Oprah Winfrey notes the usually limited impact of celebrity endorsements on political campaigns. "Most of the time celebrities only help draw crowds to events, and they don't do much to affect actual voting decisions, but Oprah might be an exception," said University of Iowa communications studies Prof. BRUCE GRONBECK. "It's as perfect a match between a celebrity and a campaign that probably I've ever seen." Link to article
Gronbeck analyzes Oprah, Obama (Toronto Star, Nov. 27)
She can move books. We'll soon learn if Oprah Winfrey can move votes. America's daytime diva will join Illinois Senator Barack Obama on the hustings next month in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, three early-voting states critical to his bid to upend New York Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Historically, high-profile endorsements -- political or celebrity -- have proved far more effective at drawing crowds than actually influencing races, but Winfrey may prove to be the exception. "That's the fascinating thing," said University of Iowa political scientist BRUCE GRONBECK. "She could transcend this. She has a very loyal and attached following and is a phenomenal match for him because of her message of self-improvement and empowerment and taking control of your world and making a positive change." Link to article
Immigration story cites UI poll (Carlsbad Current Argus, Nov. 27)
A story about Hispanic voters in Iowa and the issue of illegal immigration notes the partisan divide over immigration was underscored in a recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll of likely caucus-goers. The survey found that two-thirds of Republicans rated immigration as either the most important or a highly important issue. Only about one-third of Democrats ranked the issue so high. The poll, however, found Republicans far from united about how to deal with the issue. The Current Argus is published in New Mexico. Link to article
Giuliani, Clinton lead on IEM (Rocky Mountain News, Nov. 26)
A story about the Iowa Electronic Markets at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA notes that Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton continue to lead the markets for their respective parties' nominations. Link to article
Squire surprised by Edwards' campaign (USA Today, Nov. 26)
You wouldn't know it from his campaign speeches, but John Edwards has a credential that no other presidential candidate can claim: He is the only one, from either party, who has ever been on a national ticket. Iowans can still spot an occasional "Kerry/Edwards" bumper sticker left over from 2004. But odds are they'll never hear Edwards mention his stint as the Democratic vice presidential candidate who ran with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. In a recent interview, Edwards waved off questions about whether he'd learned anything from the experience of helping run a national campaign that nearly defeated George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. University of Iowa political science professor PEVERILL SQUIRE is skeptical of the theory that Edwards/Kerry would have stood a better chance of winning than Kerry/Edwards. Edwards had only been in the Senate since 1998, he had never held any other public office, and he had little name recognition nationally, Squire said. By contrast, Kerry had been in the Senate since 1985, and he was fairly well known before he ran for president. Squire said Edwards' current campaign could try to use his experience on the national ticket as a selling point. The candidate could talk about things he learned to do or not do in a presidential campaign, the professor said. "It does seem to be tucked way in the background," Squire said. "It has not been part of his pitch, and really hasn't been part of the conversation at all. It's a little bit surprising." A version of this article also appeared Nov. 27 in the GREEN BAY (Wis.) Press Gazette. Link to article
Gronbeck comments on Obama (The Guardian, Nov. 25)
America is waking up to the fact that Barack Obama's tougher tactics and some critical missteps by the Clinton campaign have left the Democratic field open again. "It is back to being Obama or Hillary. It has tightened up in the last few weeks," said BRUCE GRONBECK of the University of Iowa. The Guardian is published in the UK. Link to article
Gronbeck comments on Democratic caucuses (New York Daily News, Nov. 24)
For Democrats seeking the White House, it's all about knocking Hillary Clinton off stride in Iowa. "For the first caucus, the object of the game has to be to perform better than expected," says BRUCE GRONBECK, professor of communications studies at the University of Iowa. "And of course for her, the expectations are especially high because of how she's doing in polls around the country." Link to article
Lewis-Beck comments on economy (Los Angeles Times, Nov. 23)
President Bush risks his credibility on the economy by presenting a picture that does not mesh with people's experiences. Critics say that Bush is cherry picking economic statistics to find those that allow him to present an upbeat report. Unemployment continues to hover below 5 percent, "but the quality of the jobs people have is deteriorating, the income gap is increasing, and there is more job insecurity," said MICHAEL S. LEWIS-BECK, a political economist at the University of Iowa. At the same time, he said, inflation is low, but "is starting to heat up." Link to article
Redlawsk comments on immigration poll (Houston Chronicle, Nov. 22)
The partisan divide over immigration was underscored in a recent University of Iowa poll of likely caucus-goers. The survey found that two-thirds of Republicans rated immigration as either the most important or a highly important issue. Only about one-third of Democrats ranked the issue so high. The poll, however, found Republicans far from united about how to deal with the issue. Though 30 percent of GOP voters supported the deportation of illegal immigrants, 51 percent preferred allowing them to become citizens if they met certain conditions, such as paying back taxes and learning English. About two-thirds of Democrats backed that option, known as "earned citizenship." DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa professor who conducted the survey, said there is less incentive for Democrats to talk about immigration because their core supporters are more interested in other issues such as the Iraq war and health care. Link to article
UI poll cited (CNN, Nov. 21)
In some polls, immigration ranks behind only the Iraq war and the economy as Iowa voters' top issue. A recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll found that 58 percent of Republican voters consider the issue very important. Link to article
Covington comments on Huckabee's campaign (Washington Post, Nov. 21)
A Washington Post-ABC poll conducted over five nights in Iowa ending Sunday shows Huckabee's support in the state tripling since July -- bringing him within striking distance of Mitt Romney's well-heeled operation. Sixty-eight percent of Huckabee's support comes from self-identified evangelical Protestants. Political experts have been perplexed that the evangelical community hasn't rallied sooner and in greater force for Huckabee. "My sense is that the rank and file on the religious right are waiting for cues from identifiable leaders like James Dobson or Tony Perkins," says CARY COVINGTON, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa. The article also appeared on the Web site of CBS NEWS. Link to article
Early caucus date could affect student turnout (Los Angeles Times, Nov. 21)
The Iowa caucuses are being held Jan. 3, the middle of winter break at universities. But the early caucus date could shift voter dynamics, adding young voices at their hometown caucuses across the state while diminishing the turnout at college precincts. Or, it could mean even fewer college students will take part in the electoral process. More than 5,000 University of Iowa students are Illinois residents, a pool of potential Barack Obama supporters who must return to campus to vote. Hawkeyes for Obama is setting up carpools between Illinois and Iowa City, and trying to find couches for students to crash on after the caucus. Caitlin Ross, a sophomore from Rockford, Ill., plans to drive her mom's champagne-colored seven-seat Honda minivan back to campus on Jan. 3, packed with other Obama supporters. But political observers, recalling previous presidential campaigns where the youth vote was touted but failed to materialize, remain wary. "Jan. 3 is just going to be tough," said TIM HAGLE, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and faculty advisor to the campus Republican club. "We won't know till caucus night how it shakes out." Link to article
Giuliani intern noted in photo (Greater Milwaukee Today, Nov. 20)
In a photo accompanying an article about visiting Iowa during caucus season, Jessie Appleby, a senior at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and an intern in Rudy Giuliani's campaign office, is shown outside the campaign's office in Iowa City. Giuliani's office is located right next door to the Hillary Clinton campaign office and around the corner from Barack Obama's office in downtown Iowa City. Link to article
UI Hawkeye Poll noted (American Prospect, Nov. 20)
Among Iowa's likely Democratic caucus-goers, immigration barely ranks among the top 10 issues, according to a poll by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, which found that only 2.4 percent of caucus-goers claimed immigration as their top issue. In that same University of Iowa poll, 85 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers said that a candidate's position on immigration was "important" or "very important" to them. Link to article
Edwards compares Iraq costs, UI tuition (Washington Post, Nov. 20)
A story about recent campaign appearances by Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards notes the candidate says the war in Iraq will cost every U.S. family $37,000 in the next decade, which is the cost of tuition for four years at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. The same story also appeared on the Web sites of the SPOKANE SPOKESMAN REVIEW, LUBBOCK (Tex.) ONLINE and the BALTIMORE SUN. Link to article
Alumna campaigns for Edwards in New Hampshire (Concord Monitor, Nov. 19)
A story about campaign volunteers in New Hampshire notes that one John Edwards supporter is Kelly Drake, who works for a political consulting firm in Seattle, where, she says, the presidential buzz is nearly nonexistent. Not like in New Hampshire, where it's equal to a hive of hornets. She's attending the Young Democrats of America's quarterly meeting in Manchester. She went to the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, located in the state of the first caucus. She's a political junky, so there she was during her free time, far from home, working the phone for Edwards. Link to article
UI poll cited on immigration (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 19)
Immigration could be a tricky problem for Democrats in the 2008 elections. A November UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll shows just 2.4 percent of Iowa Democrats consider immigration as the issue "most important" to determining their vote, but 85 percent said a candidate's position on immigration is important or very important to them. Link to article
Redlawsk says Iowans serious about caucuses (Dallas Morning News, Nov. 16)
Texas Gov. Rick Perry recently campaigned in Iowa on behalf of the Rudy Giuliani presidential campaign, which hopes the governor's conservative credentials will reassure voters uneasy about the former New York mayor's liberal record on social issues. Iowa holds its presidential caucus Jan. 3, and voters here are serious about their first-in-the-nation nominating contest. "This is an unusual group in American politics," said University of Iowa political scientist DAVID REDLAWSK. "Iowa caucus-goers are far more aware and involved in politics than pretty much anywhere else." The article also appeared on the website of WFAA-TV in Dallas. Link to article
Romney stresses private-sector background (MSNBC.com, Nov. 16)
Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney hopes his private-sector background will help propel him to the Republican nomination and ultimately the presidency at a time when public dissatisfaction with US politicians is at record levels and pessimism about the economy is mounting. "The campaign theme is his record of stepping into difficult management situations and turning them into successes," says CARY COVINGTON, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. "He did it with the Salt Lake City Olympics. He did it as governor of Massachusetts. The implication is that he'll do it again as president." The article originally appeared in the FINANCIAL TIMES. Link to article
IEM used to track Clinton after negative news (Chicago Sun-Times, Nov. 15)
Sun-Times columnist Jennifer Hunter wanted to see if anything had happened to Sen. Hillary Clinton's place in the Democratic presidential race after the negative reviews of her debate performance in Philadelphia on Oct. 30 and the revelation, last week, that her campaign planted a question during a campaign stop in Iowa. Instead of polls, Hunter looked at the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, which as Salon.com notes are "consistently better at forecasting winners than pre-election polls." The IEM treats presidential candidates as if they are hog futures. And they use real money. In the 2004 presidential race, IEM investors spent $400,000 betting on the outcome. On Oct. 28, just before the Philly debate, Clinton's IEM price per share closed at 71.3 cents. Post-debate, on Nov. 1, Clinton shares closed at 71 cents. Link to article
Gronbeck predicts tight Republican race (Boston Globe, Nov. 15)
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, despite heavy spending and intensive campaigning, finds himself in a tightening race in Iowa with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, forcing Romney to aggressively confront an opponent with far less money and organizational backing who was far back in the polls a few weeks ago. A University of Iowa professor, BRUCE GRONBECK, predicted a tight race between Huckabee and Romney, "and then you get to the question of who comes out on a cold January night," he said. On that score, Gronbeck gave the advantage to Romney's fundraising and vast network of backers. "That could be the difference," Gronbeck said. The article also appeared in the SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE. Link to article
Squire: bandwagon effect has merit in politics (National Post, Nov. 15)
New polls in three early-voting states -- Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- have Rudy Giuliani trailing Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, sometimes by significant margins. Mr. Giuliani's lukewarm appeal in those key states, which will hold primary or caucus elections early in January, is significant because winners there historically carry that strength into later nomination contests. "If Romney sweeps Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, he will be almost impossible to stop," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. "The idea of a bandwagon effect -- that voters just tuning into a race will go with the likely nominee -- has some merit to it. It will be hard for candidates who have not done well in the early events to make the case that they are the stronger potential nominee." The NATIONAL POST is a newspaper based in Ontario. Link to article
Gronbeck comments on student behavior (RealClearPolitics, Nov. 14)
Actually getting younger participants to caucuses is a task susceptible to several hurdles. The circumstances surrounding caucus night are major barriers: Iowans who have long caucused themselves will invariably point out, when asked about the experience, that the weather is likely to be miserably cold, and that attendees must spend hours in a room with people they barely know and proudly voice their opinions on politics. "That's not normal college student behavior," University of Iowa political scientist BRUCE GRONBECK said with a laugh. REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM is an independent political Web site. Link to article
Redlawsk: race in Iowa 'extremely fluid' (Nov. 14, Financial Times)
DAVID REDLAWSK, political scientist at the University of Iowa, says the race in Iowa remains "extremely fluid", with all three main candidates still in contention. "A lot of caucus-goers do not make their decision until the last couple of weeks," he says, referring to Iowa's unique caucus voting system. Link to article
Gronbeck comments on Tancredo ad (MSNBC.com, Nov. 13)
On Monday Rep. Tom Tancredo unveiled a new television ad that shows a hooded man slip into a peaceful shopping mall, set down a black backpack -- not far from where children are playing -- and then, boom! Interspersed with images of a bloody body and the destruction of recent terrorist attacks in London, Spain and Russia, it argues that this could be "the price we pay for spineless politicians who refuse to defend our border against those who come to kill." But one Iowa political analyst called it such a "brute" appeal for fear that it's not likely to help Tancredo's long-shot campaign here in the nation's first presidential caucus state. Neither will the ad prompt any other candidates to respond, as Tancredo told reporters Monday was his real goal, the analyst said. "This is just blatant, raw fear images, and they've never worked in the United States, period," said BRUCE GRONBECK, a communications professor from the University of Iowa who teaches a course on politics in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Link to article
Redlawsk: Huckabee has a shot in Iowa (McClatchy News Service, Nov. 12)
A story about the presidential campaign of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee notes that he has been rising in recent Republican presidential polls. "The trick for Huckabee is getting people who might be supportive of him to believe that he has a shot," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political scientist and pollster. "It wouldn't surprise me to see it as a Romney/Huckabee race in Iowa." Link to article
UI poll cited (Real Clear Politics, Nov. 12)
A story about the unpredictable nature of the Iowa caucuses notes that in a recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL, 16 percent of those polled supported Democrats who would not receive the minimum 15 percent of the vote to be considered viable and will need to support a second candidate. Real Clear Politics is an independent political Web page headquartered in Chicago. Link to article
UI student Nakhasi attracts top Democrats (ABC News, Nov. 12)
Twenty-year-old Atul Nakhasi's bedroom is messy, like most other college students his age. But in addition to an unmade bed, and laundry strewn around the room, Nakhasi's clutter includes handwritten notes from Bill Clinton, business cards of major political campaign directors, and personally autographed books from Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Nakhasi is the president of the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA Democrats, an organization he has been rebuilding over the last three years, from a crumbling club that attracted eight students per meeting, to a campus powerhouse, hosting events of thousands and attracting media from across the country. Link to article
Covington comments on caucus impact (National Post, Nov. 12)
The Iowa caucus can make or break presidential candidates, but Hillary Clinton is better positioned. "If Hillary Clinton wins Iowa and then goes on to win in New Hampshire, it seems pretty sure she will win the nomination," said CARY COVINGTON of the University of Iowa. "If she comes second or third in Iowa, she can absorb that, and still compete." The National Post is published in Canada. Link to article
UI student responds to caucus date (USA Today, Nov. 12)
The Iowa caucuses have been moved to Jan. 3, when virtually all Iowa colleges are on winter break, but candidates are making an effort to increase student participation. Catherine Chargo, 20, a senior at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA who originally supported Obama, says, "Originally I was on his bandwagon because everyone else was." She's now "on the fence" between Edwards and Obama. Link to article
UI poll cited (Bloomberg, Nov. 11)
An analysis of the presidential race noted that a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll last month put Democrat Hillary Clinton's support among likely voters at 29 percent, 2 percentage points ahead of Barack Obama. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was third with 20 percent. Link to article
Covington says race will stay close (AFP, Nov. 11)
Time is running short for Barack Obama to catch 2008 White House rival Hillary Clinton. The Iowa race is very close, virtually a dead heat, and CARY COVINGTON, political science professor at the University of Iowa, said that "absent some major mistake from the Clinton campaign" that is the way it will stay. AFP originates in France. Link to article
Clinton candidacy attracts female support (Detroit Free Press, Nov. 11)
Women often outnumber men two to one at Hillary Clinton rallies. Will Clinton's gender help her, hurt her, or make no difference? In Iowa, the first state to vote in January, the U.S. senator from New York now gets the support of 33 percent of women and 22.5 percent of men, according to a survey of likely Democratic caucus attendees by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Link to article
UI poll cited (The Herald, Nov. 11)
Columnist David Sirota writes, "The media's version of the Iowa presidential caucuses is a story of five candidates and two rivalries... But the numbers suggest the most compelling story is about two underdog candidates and one demographic: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), former Sen. John Edwards (D) and the middle class. Huckabee gained 11 points in the latest UNIVERSITY OF IOWA survey, pulling himself into a statistical tie for second place with Giuliani, despite Giuliani's national fame and huge fundraising totals. Similarly, Edwards remains within striking distance of first place in Iowa despite his rivals spending 300 times what he's spent on television ads as of the end of September." The Herald is published in Washington state. Link to article
Covington assesses Huckabee (The Guardian, Nov. 10)
Mike Huckabee, a long-shot Republican contender for the 2008 White House, has burst into the leading pack of the race for his party's nomination. "Huckabee is the ticking time bomb of the party," said Professor CARY COVINGTON, a politics expert at the University of Iowa. 'Religious voters are soon going to realize that he is the candidate who best fits their profile and get behind him. People on the religious right often have a harsh image. Huckabee shares their values, but is positive and optimistic. He softens them." The Guardian is published in the UK. Link to article
Edwards speaks at the UI (Boston Globe, Nov. 9)
Former North Carolina senator John Edward spoke Monday at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, where he said Hillary Clinton "is voting like a hawk in Washington and talking like a dove in Iowa and New Hampshire." Link to article
Squire comments on Obama (Boston Globe, Nov. 9)
Barack Obama is struggling to overtake Hillary Clinton as the Iowa Democratic caucuses approach. "He's an attractive, smart candidate, but I don't think people have figured out yet why they should vote for him," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a University of Iowa political analyst and visiting professor. The story originated with Reuters. Link to article
Redlawsk: Democratic presidential race is 'very tight' (The Politico, Nov. 8)
Among Democratic presidential contenders, Sen. John Edwards closely follows Sen. Barack Obama in Iowa, according to most polls. Both follow Hillary Clinton by fewer than 10 percent among Democratic voters surveyed in Iowa, in a race UI political science associate professor DAVID REDLAWSK characterized as "very tight." Redlawsk said Edwards' and other candidates' repeated criticism of Hillary Clinton is to be expected as contenders try to distinguish themselves from the front-runner. Link to article
Covington comments on Huckabee's rise in the polls (Yahoo! News, Nov. 8)
Mike Huckabee, a witty former Arkansas governor, has powered into second place in the polls in Iowa, some 65 days before the state's crucial caucuses. "The religious right vote in the Iowa caucuses is a substantial bloc, and if you secure that support you are a serious player," said CARY COVINGTON, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. Link to article
Dodd moves his family to Iowa (Miami Herald, Nov. 7)
Sen. Chris Dodd's long-shot Democratic presidential campaign has a new look: It's the Little House on the Prairie. The Connecticut senator, in what's either a desperate grab for attention or a clever way of ingratiating himself among Iowans, has moved his family of four to a three-bedroom, three-bath house in west Des Moines. It's worth trying, said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a visiting professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "He needs to do something to make a splash," Squire said. "But I'm not sure this alone will turn the tide." Link to article
Edwards' daughter is on the campaign trail (Boston Globe, Nov. 7)
When Sen. John Edwards ran in the 2004 election, his daughter Cate Edwards was a senior at Princeton University and spent little time campaigning so she wouldn't miss out on her final year. Three years later, she is a second-year law student, and this time she is trying to do it all. This fall, Edwards, 25, scheduled her three classes -- advocacy; evidence; and child, family, and state law -- in the middle of the week, leaving Mondays and Fridays free for campaign trips. In late September, she left campus for a weekend in Iowa, visiting with Hawkeye fans at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA in Iowa City for a homecoming tailgate party and crisscrossing the state to talk to students in other college towns. Link to article
Squire: Edwards more aggressive than in '04 (ABC News, Nov. 7)
PEVERILL SQUIRE, a University of Iowa visiting political science professor who closely tracks politics in Iowa, said presidential candidate John Edwards has a reservoir of good will in the state but wondered whether Edwards has turned too sharply away from the "happy warrior" attitude he displayed in 2004. "The last time around he was very upbeat, very engaging and this time around he's been a bit more aggressive and has taken a much harder line both in terms of his opponents and his need for policy changes," said Squire. Link to article
Clinton lead slim in Hawkeye Poll (Fox News, Nov. 7)
With less than two months until the Iowa caucuses, Hillary Clinton is charging through the early-voting state of Iowa in an attempt to widen a lead that was recently imperiled when her Democratic opponents stepped up their game of hardball against her following last week's candidate debate. The frontrunner's worries that opponents Barack Obama and John Edwards could outflank her in the heartland have set her to hiring 100 new staff in Iowa and possibly doubling that army by caucus night on Jan. 3. In Iowa, an American Research Group poll taken between Oct. 26 and 29 of 600 likely voters put Clinton 10 points ahead of Obama, with 32 percent support. A UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll taken a week earlier only gave her a two-point lead. Link to article
Student: age group matters in elections (Public Radio International, Nov. 6)
More than a billion dollars will be spent by candidates in pursuit of the 2008 U.S. presidency. "Your Billion Dollar President" looks at what it takes to get elected and what the candidates' spending, marketing and campaigning say about the quality of our democracy. Co-hosted by John Hockenberry and Adaora Udoji, "Your Billion Dollar President" is the first in a series of monthly election specials from "The Morning Show." In a segment on young voters, John challenges his nephew, Nick, a freshman at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, to prove that his age group matters in this election. Link to audio file
Redlawsk comments on '04 mudslinging (Campaigns & Elections, Nov. 6)
Sen. Hillary Clinton seemed to be pulling away in national polls, and last week's debate was the opportunity for her opponents to make a move to stop her, now or never. Clinton's opponents went on the offensive and began what many perceive as the first signs of negative campaigning. One fear is that if Democrats go too negative, Iowa voters may punish them. Part of what gives Iowans such a reputation is the late, rapid fall from grace experienced by 2004 candidates Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. The two then-frontrunners lunged for each other's throats in the last weeks of the caucus campaign, and were rewarded with distant third- and fourth-place finishes, respectively. University of Iowa professor DAVID REDLAWSK said people shouldn't overstate the lessons of '04, however. He argued that most telling was that Gephardt never had the organization or deep support pre-caucus polls seemed to indicate, and that Dean's organization and caucus campaign model were flawed from the start. "I think that the negativity was a factor, but I wouldn't say [Dean and Gephardt] lost because of it. I would say it was a contributing factor," Redlawsk said. Link to article
Redlawsk: negativity can help, hurt campaigns (Bloomberg, Nov. 6)
After starting the year as the leading candidate in Iowa, John Edwards, 54, has fallen to third place behind New York Sen. Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, according to the most recent survey by the University of Iowa. With the Iowa caucuses less than two months away, Democratic candidates have stepped up their attacks on Clinton, who tops polls nationally and is vying for the lead in Iowa. Leading the charge has been Edwards, who needs a strong Iowa showing to boost his campaign. University of Iowa political scientist DAVID REDLAWSK said candidates must tread a fine line when ratcheting up criticism of their opponents, as they try to balance appearing negative with publicizing positions taken by their opponents, which might be unpopular with voters. "We know people say they don't like it, but we also know people are wired to pay attention to negativity," he said. "The real question is which thing has the bigger impact." Link to article
Berg, business students discuss Iowa Electronic Markets (PBS, Nov. 6)
JOYCE BERG, a professor in the University of Iowa's Henry B. Tippie College of Business, explained the Iowa Electronic Markets on PBS' "Nightly Business Report." Michelle Collins, a UI senior in business, and Chuck Mersch, an MBA candidate at the UI, discussed what they're learning from the IEM. Link to article
Edwards criticizes Clinton in speech at UI (National Journal, Nov. 5)
John Edwards used his Iran strategy speech in Iowa City today to attack Hillary Clinton (again) for her vote declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. After apologizing for his 2002 vote authorizing the Iraq war and railing against the Bush administration for its "preventive war doctrine," Edwards turned to Clinton's stance on Iraq. "With less than 60 days to go before the caucus, Sen. Clinton still has not given specific answers to specific questions," he told the crowd at Richey Ballroom at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Versions of this story appeared on the Web sites of numerous news organizations. Link to article
UI poll cited (Washington Times, Nov. 5)
Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois was breathing down Hillary Clinton's neck last week in a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll that showed her barely ahead, 29 percent to 27 percent. Link to article
UI poll shows Obama leading among young (PC World, Nov. 5)
A UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll released last Monday found Obama holds an overwhelming lead over Clinton among Iowa voters under 45: 41 percent to 19 percent. But fewer than half of Obama's supporters said they are likely to caucus, the poll found. This story was distributed by Reuters. Link to article
Redlawsk comments on Huckabee (USA Today, Nov. 4)
As the 2008 presidential race heads toward the first nominating contests, Mike Huckabee is getting more news coverage, moving up in polls, and even drawing some attacks from other Republicans. But he lags in fundraising. DAVID REDLAWSK, co-director of the Hawkeye Poll, said candidates don't have to be "incredibly rich" to succeed in Iowa, but they need to have a staff to "get people out to caucuses." Redlawsk added that Huckabee does have something his Republican opponents don't: "a strong base of evangelical Christians." Link to article
Redlawsk comments on Edwards' slide (Detroit Free Press, Nov. 4)
The University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll, taken Oct. 17-24, put Clinton at 28.9 percent, with 26.6 percent for Obama, with Sen. John Edwards at 20 percent. DAVID REDLAWSK, director of the poll, said a high turnout by Edwards' loyalists at the caucuses could help overcome his deficit. "If we only look at caucus-goers who are almost certain to attend, we find that Edwards makes up the gap with Obama, and Clinton moves clearly ahead," he said. Link to article
UI poll shows Huckabee surge (The Politico, Nov. 3)
The latest poll from the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney strengthening his lead among Republicans and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee cracking into the top tier. Link to article
Squire comments on caucus impact (Toronto Star, Nov. 3)
The Iowa caucuses may have unprecedented impact on the presidential races. "I think this state will become more important than ever," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political analyst and visiting professor at the University of Iowa. "There will be so much attention paid to this vote, and the hype will be so immense, that it will be very difficult to recover from a poor effort." Link to article
UI poll cited (Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Nov. 3)
A new UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll puts Republican Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, into a virtual tie for second place with Rudy Giuliani. Link to article
Republicans liked Obama in August Hawkeye Poll (Time, Nov. 2)
On Monday, the Barack Obama campaign announced that more than 300 Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans had decided to cross party lines to support Obama. At Obama events in Oklahoma, Kentucky, Virginia and Georgia, a good 20 percent of audiences routinely raise their hands when emcees ask for Republicans in the crowd. A "Republicans for Obama" website has 11 state chapters with 146 members. An August UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll even found Obama running third in the state among Republican candidates, behind Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani but ahead of both Fred Thompson and John McCain. And a national Gallup poll this month also found that nearly as many Republicans like Obama -- 39 percent -- than the 43 percent that dislike him. Link to article
UI poll cited in story on Clinton's war opposition (New York Sun, Nov. 2)
Sen. Hillary Clinton is describing her opposition to the war in Iraq as an extension of Eugene McCarthy's position in the 1960s movement against the war in Vietnam. Clinton's comments came at an energy-charged rally yesterday at her alma mater, Wellesley College. Clinton, who was scheduled to speak later in the day at the University of New Hampshire, is striving to capture the votes of young and highly educated voters, two groups present at Wellesley's Alumnae Hall. "But college-educated and professional women...have been a greater puzzle for her," wrote Ronald Brownstein in National Journal last week. In a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll Barack Obama led Clinton 41 percent to 19 percent among voters 18 to 44. Link to article
UI, ISU winter breaks to impact caucus turnout (Kansas City Star, Nov. 1)
The Century Foundation blasted the Iowa caucuses and its earlier start, saying it's not representative of the country; has low turnout (4.7 percent in '04, compared to 30 percent in New Hampshire); takes too much time, and limits ballot access. The report also noted that between the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and Iowa State University, 20,000 voters won't participate because of winter break this school year. Link to article
Gronbeck discusses Clinton's debate performance (Rocky Mountain News, Nov. 1)
It's no secret why there's an invisible "Kick me" sign on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's back. For the moment, she's running away with the national polls in the Democratic presidential contest, and it's getting much later than some folks in 49 states might think. So rivals like Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards stepped up their attacks during a televised debate on Tuesday night -- questioning her candor, attacking her votes for the Iraq war and a new resolution pressuring Iran, wondering aloud whether she can really beat Republicans. BRUCE GRONBECK, a communication studies professor from the University of Iowa, said the attacks rattled Clinton a bit on the immigration question. But otherwise, "She just made everybody look like second-run candidates. She set up her campaign as the campaign that's issue-centered, policy-centered." Link to article
UI in the National News Archives
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