UI in the National Political News

September 2007

Iowa Electronic Markets cited (Seattle Times, Sept. 30)
Prediction markets are proliferating. Established prediction markets include the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by UNIVERSITY OF IOWA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS professors, which predicts election results often better than traditional polls. Link to article

Squire comments on Edwards campaign (Los Angeles Times, Sept. 30)
John Edwards optimists point to the 2004 primary season, when Howard Dean was practically anointed the Democratic candidate for president before Columbus Day, only to spin out of control when the caucusing and voting began several months later. "The big difference is, of course, that Hillary Clinton is not Howard Dean," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a visiting professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "Hoping that somehow things are going to unfold in 2008 the same way they did in 2004 is probably wishful thinking." Link to article

Redlawsk comments on Edwards fundraising plans (News & Observer, Sept. 28)
John Edwards said Thursday he will accept public financing for his Democratic presidential primary bid in what some saw as a concession that he cannot keep pace in money raising with his chief Democratic rivals. By accepting the spending limits of the federal campaign finance system, Edwards could see a near-term infusion in public money. But his campaign would be restricted on how much he could spend. The public financing system is paid for by $3 check-offs on federal income tax forms. Although the limits have not been set for the 2008 election, the Federal Election Commission has said that if the election were held this year, candidates would be limited to spending $40.1 million in the primaries. That might not hurt Edwards, who has said his goal was to spend $40 million on the primaries. "At one level, he could argue that it doesn't limit him in the aggregate," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. THE NEWS & OBSERVER is published in Raleigh, N.C. Link to article

Redlawsk: Clinton strong with older voters (Washington Post, Sept. 24)
Iowa's elderly, the biggest voting bloc in the kick-off U.S. presidential contest, could make or break 2008 White House contenders and give Hillary Clinton a vital boost in one of her toughest states. Clinton's popularity among older voters, particularly women, gives her an edge in a tight three-way Iowa Democratic race with Barack Obama and John Edwards, but many Iowa seniors say they are still hunting for a candidate and open to persuasion. A University of Iowa poll in August found Obama, a senator from Illinois, ahead among voters under age 60, but voters over 60 preferred Clinton by a wide margin and Obama fell to fourth place, behind former Sen. Edwards and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. "Hillary is very strong with seniors and Obama is clearly not doing as well with older Iowans as he is with younger voters," said DAVID REDLAWSK, director of the University of Iowa's Hawkeye poll. The same story appeared on the Web site of the NEW YORK TIMES. Link to article

UI poll cited for Obama endorsement (Washington Post, Sept. 24)
Sen. Barack Obama picked up the endorsement of Gordon Fischer, a well-known Iowa Democrat, on Monday, as his campaign stepped up its two-pronged effort to raise money before the end of the quarter and prove he is best poised to win the general election. Fischer said he and his wife, Monica, another operative, decided to back Obama over this past weekend. They held an endorsement event with the New York City Corrections Officers' Benevolent Association on Monday, at the same time disseminating a new poll by a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA political science professor showing solid support for Obama among Republicans. Link to article

Gronbeck comments on Romney Q&As (North County Times, Sept. 23)
Town hall meetings have become a staple of the Mitt Romney campaign in the early caucus and primary states. The sessions give Romney "a direct Q and A session, the essence of a small state caucus, where you have to talk to people over and over again," said BRUCE GRONBECK, the director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture. Gronbeck said the sessions will also give Romney the opportunity to use his best answers in television commercials and as video clips for his Web site. The North County Times is published in California. Link to article

Iowa Electronic Markets prove accurate (Sunday Times, Sept. 23)
Prediction markets are a hot new business trend because they have proven more accurate than opinion surveys. The University of Iowa's IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS often predict election results more accurately than pre-election polls. The Sunday Times originates in South Africa. Link to article

Gronbeck says Clinton may be hard to beat (Kansas City Star, Sept. 21)
Hillary Clinton seems to have solidified her position as the Democratic frontrunner. "If they can't beat her in Iowa, it's going to be amazingly difficult to catch her," said University of Iowa political scientist BRUCE GRONBECK. Link to article

Squire comments on Clinton-Edwards tiff (New York Times, Sept. 19)
The campaigns of Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards traded pointed criticisms yesterday over Clinton's use of a Washington luncheon for fund-raising. The confrontation started with Edwards's campaign attacking Clinton's $1,000-a-person luncheon and continued as her camp dismissed the broadside as signs of a "flagging campaign." PEVERILL SQUIRE, a visiting professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said the exchange reflected standings in polls, where Clinton leads. "There a sense that this endless campaign will be coming to an end with the Iowa caucuses not far off," Squire said. "Edwards and other candidates are focusing their criticism on her as a way to bring them from the back. She's the front-runner and a big target, and other campaigns get a lot of attention if they attack someone else." Link to article

Gronbeck discusses campaign surprises (Hollywood Reporter, Sept. 18)
A story about the Iowa caucuses points out that because of the nature of one-on-one campaigning, candidates are often tripped up by questions they receive. "On the caucus trail, they are doing question-and-answer with 20 to 30 people who are going to, yes, ask them about the war and health care but also ask them about things that they haven't thought about, like the ratio of oil to biofuels or do they think that Barry Bonds should have an asterisk behind his name," said BRUCE GRONBECK, a professor of communications at the University of Iowa. "You can see the staffers scribbling furiously because they haven't thought of that question before." Link to article

UI poll shows Obama strength (In These Times, Sept. 17)
Barack Obama shows surprising strength among Republicans. In a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA Poll in early August, Obama received more support from Republican voters -- 6.7 percent -- than all of the Republican contenders except for Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. In These Times is published in Chicago, Ill. Link to article

Schoenbaum assesses policy debate (USA Today, Sept. 15)
The 2008 foreign policy debate has been "primitive," said DAVID SCHOENBAUM, a University of Iowa history professor who this fall is teaching a "civic Chautauqua" on U.S. foreign policy. "It is one issue, which is the war (in Iraq)," he said. "And it is two bumper stickers: 'Stay the course' versus 'get out of Iraq.'" This story has appeared widely after distribution on the Gannett wire. Link to article

Gronbeck: despite YouTube, TV controls debates (Straits Times, Sept. 13)
It has been pointed out that the YouTube debate attracted 2.6 million television viewers, slightly lower than the number who tuned in a month earlier for a more typical debate. Experts also say its format was not all that different from the one used for nearly 50 years -- candidates on a stage, answering questions selected by the news media in a television broadcast. University of Iowa elections expert BRUCE GRONBECK said: "Television maintained its position as the dominant framer. It threw the YouTube questions up on the screen and took a picture of them with a camera rather than direct feeding into the broadcast. So the dominant medium tried to stay in control and they picked the questions." THE STRAITS TIMES is an English-language newspaper in Singapore. Link to article

Gronbeck comments on impact of Iraq reports (Campaigns & Elections, Sept. 12)
BRUCE GRONBECK, director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture said he doesn't predict much of Iowa's congressional delegation making position changes, with one potential exception. "It seems to me the key person whom this may embolden is [U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell]. He's simply not real loud on this issue...he may get pushed further, though I think his balancing job is a little bit trickier because he's under such pressure and always being targeted if only because he's getting older and sicker. I don't think the rest will. The new congressional reps on the east end of the state have been working pretty loud and hard already on this issue," he continued, adding that freshman Democratic U.S. Reps. Bruce Braley and David Loebsack, in particular, had to focus on other issues. Link to article

Gronbeck comments on campaign contributions (New York Daily News, Sept. 11)
In his blog, reporter Michael McAuliff says Hillary Clinton is throwing around whopping sums to get out from under the Norman Hsu scandal; and in Iowa, that $850,000 she's giving back could buy her forgiveness, says Iowa political scandal expert BRUCE GRONBECK. "I don't think it will hurt much because a whole bunch of Iowans got money from Hsu, too," Gronbeck, of the University of Iowa, said, referring to Sen. Tom Harkin and others. "And it helps that she acted quickly to get rid of the money." Link to article

Thompson faces challenges in presidential race (Yahoo! News, Sept. 11)
Having entered the GOP presidential race months after other top Republicans, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson faces a big challenge in building the grassroots organizations vital to winning early states in the nominating calendar. Thompson faces a daunting situation in Iowa, where the caucus system requires precinct-level contacts and volunteers to help turn out the vote. One problem Thompson faces with his late entry is finding people who know the process and the political terrain, said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a visiting professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "All of the people who are well acquainted with the intricacies of the caucus process have pretty much been scooped up by other candidates," he said. "So it's hard at this point to try to assemble a particularly good organization to try to turn people out on caucus night." Link to article

Gronbeck comments on Obama's Oprah appearance (Baltimore Sun, Sept. 8)
Barack Obama may have made a splash at the Democratic National Convention in 2004, but his appearance on "The Oprah Winfrey Show" widened his path into a world of pop culture, a critical domain as he began to build his celebrity-infused political portfolio. BRUCE GRONBECK, a University of Iowa political communications professor, said celebrity endorsements typically are not very effective, especially in early voting states where Obama's fate will likely be decided. "Iowa caucus goers tend to take their political decision making pretty seriously," he said. "It will be a positive sign for many, but I don't think at all it will be a definitive mark." Link to article

Gronbeck: Biden 'something of a loose cannon' (The Inter Mountain, Sept. 4)
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, behind in polls and campaign money, is betting the farm on Iowa's leadoff caucuses, hoping a strong showing will rocket him to the top of the field. "At the end of the day, I'm a tactile politician and I trust my feel, and I'm telling you I think there's some pace on the ball," Biden said. "I'm not trying to make this a groundswell, but there's something there that's genuine." Others aren't convinced. University of Iowa political science professor BRUCE GRONBECK said Biden has a habit of talking his way into trouble. "I don't think he's showing much traction," Gronbeck said. "There's a sense he's something of a loose cannon." This article originated with the Associated Press. THE INTER MOUNTAIN is published in Elkins, W.Va. Link to article

Blog cites UI Hawkeye Poll's immigration results (Washington Times, Sept. 6)
A new UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll finds that immigration is "increasingly important to Iowa voters." The poll found that 49 percent of Iowa voters surveyed said a candidate's position on "undocumented immigration" is "very important." Among likely Republican caucus-goers, nearly 58 percent said illegal immigration is a "very important" issue for their vote. The poll found a majority of voters preferred offering citizenship rights to illegal aliens. Support for citizenship grew among Democrats between March's poll and the August poll, but fell among both Republicans and independents. Link to article

Covington comments on Thompson candidacy (Miami Herald, Sept. 6)
Nearly five years after leaving the Senate, Fred Thompson, the 65-year-old movie actor and Law & Order star from Tennessee is now a candidate in the crowded race for the Republican nomination for president. He was due to post his announcement online, just after midnight today, after a lengthy testing-the-waters period and a late-night appearance Wednesday on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. Starting today, Thompson will spend the next week in the key early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. "He could catch fire and take off," said CARY COVINGTON, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "But, historically, candidates who rely in Iowa on television ads and commercials don't do well. It takes organizing at the grassroots level, and that takes time." The story was also published on the Web sites of the SACRAMENTO BEE and THE CENTRE DAILY TIMES of Pennsylvania. Link to article

Story cites Obama showing in Hawkeye Poll (National Review Online, Sept. 6)
Last month Barack Obama came in third behind Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani in a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll that asked registered Republicans to name their preferred general election candidate. "What we're seeing at this early stage among people looking forward to the November 2008 election," the pollster told Campaigns & Elections, "is that Obama is the Democrat Republicans are most likely to vote for." Link to article

Covington: shots at Thompson likely in Republican debate (RTT News, Sept. 5)
CARY COVINGTON, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, is not so sure that Thompson won't be a topic of conversation tonight. The candidates, he said, will likely take preemptive shots at Thompson, asking "Why isn't he here and why doesn't he want to share his ideas with the rest of us?" Link to article

Gronbeck: Biden talks himself into trouble (USA Today, Sept. 3)
Sen. Joe Biden brings a blue-chip resume to his second bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. He's represented Delaware in the Senate since 1972, and as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he's in the middle of the debate over the Iraq war. Most polls show that's the top issue with voters, and Biden has been an early and persistent critic of Bush's policy -- a strong selling point with overwhelmingly anti-war Democratic activists. Still, Biden is at the back of the pack in polls nationally and in Iowa. University of Iowa political science professor BRUCE GRONBECK said Biden has a habit of talking his way into trouble. "I don't think he's showing much traction," Gronbeck said. "There's a sense he's something of a loose cannon." The same story appeared on the Web site of the LAS VEGAS SUN, MIAMI HERALD, SAVANNAH MORNING NEWS, FRESNO BEE, INDIANAPOLIS STAR, CNN.com, VIRGINIA BEACH VIRGINIAN PILOT, RALEIGH NEWS AND OBSERVER, CHARLESTON (WV) DAILY MAIL, SPOKANE SPOKESMAN REVIEW, PHILADELPHIA DAILY NEWS, GUARDIAN (UK), and numerous other news organizations. Link to article

IEM has called every presidential race since 1988 (New York Resident, Sept. 3)
A story about electronic prediction markets notes the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's electronic market has correctly called every presidential race since its inception in 1988 and come within one point of guessing the total percentage of votes received by the winner. Link to article

Redlawsk: 'New Iowa' is increasingly urban (US News & World Report, Sept. 2)
A story about the changing nature of Iowa's First Congressional District notes that presidential candidates who have come to this district, which includes Waterloo to the west and the Quad Cities area south on the Mississippi, have found what many characterize as the "new Iowa," an increasingly urban state, says DAVID REDLAWSK of the University of Iowa, "with a lot of empty rural counties and a few densely packed urban areas." And in 2008, this "new Iowa" will be up for grabs. Link to article

UI in the National News Archives