UI in the National Political News

August 2008

Redlawsk teaches classes from Democratic National Convention (CNN U, Aug. 28)
The first time the 11 University of Iowa students met Associate Professor DAVID REDLAWSK in their political science seminar, they could see former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack over his shoulder while Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar's voice boomed in the background. Redlawsk, a delegate to the Democratic Convention, will be in Denver until Wednesday. But he was also scheduled to begin teaching classes at the university on Monday. Rather than canceling his classes or his trip, Redlawsk turned a scheduling conflict into an opportunity to give his students a firsthand look into a national political convention. This story was first published in THE DAILY IOWAN. (Link to article)

Redlawsk gives students insider's view of national convention (Diverse, Aug. 28)
University of Iowa political scientist DAVID REDLAWSK has been teaching remotely from the convention. Chosen as a delegate, Redlawsk had been scheduled to teach two courses on political campaigns during the convention. His solution was to teach from the convention using Webcams and blogs. Interviewing politicians, campaign staff, journalists, celebrities and delegates about their experiences at the convention, Redlawsk has been posting the interviews online along with his own commentary. A total of 60 students are in the courses. Redlawsk has joined his students live via Webcam to lead discussions. DIVERSE is a newsmagazine that covers higher education. (Link to article)

Redlawsk calls Clinton speech 'home run' (Bloomberg, Aug. 27)
Speaking at the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton asked her supporters to put aside any idea of voting for Republican John McCain and instead back her former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama. DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa professor who attended the convention as a delegate for former candidate John Edwards, said he was impressed with Clinton, who was his third choice for president. "It was a home run, clear and simple," he said. (Link to article)

Rietz: Biden selection had no impact on IEM (Fox Business News, Aug. 25)
THOMAS RIETZ, professor of finance in the Tippie College of Business, said Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential nominee had no effect on prices on the Iowa Electronic Markets. This interview is not available online.

IEM partners with MinnPost.com to predict Senate race (MinnPost.com, Aug. 21)
This week, in partnership with MinnPost.com, the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, the brainchild of a trio of economics professors at the University of Iowa who hatched the idea during the 1988 presidential campaign, is launching a new market this political season: You can put money in the Senate race between Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., and Democrat Al Franken. MinnPost will report on its site how the market is doing. MINNPOST.COM is a Twin Cities-based online news organization that focuses on local and state news in Minnesota. (Link to article)

IEM predicts Obama as frontrunner (Financial Times, Aug. 21)
The summer phony war for the U.S. presidency is about to end. What do markets tell us about the race for the White House? If the prediction markets run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and Intrade are right, Barack Obama is the frontrunner, but no "sure thing." His chances are between 58.4 percent (Intrade) and 59.6 percent (Iowa). These odds had been as high as 72.2 per cent. (Link to article)

Snee: futures markets need more hard information (BBC, Aug. 21)
Internet betting Web sites and prediction markets are registering huge interest in the U.S. presidential election, with trade already far exceeding the total for 2004 in some cases. "Our volume is 600 percent up this presidential cycle, 2008 to date, versus 2004," said John Delaney, chief executive of Dublin-based political futures market Intrade. The "gargantuan" struggle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination had helped to fuel interest, he said, and now the sharp contrast between Mr. Obama and John McCain was having the same effect. According to TOM SNEE of the Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes to reliably predict a result. Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says -- but not at forecasting choices being made inside Barack Obama's or John McCain's head. (Link to article)

IEM investors predict Democrats will win election (New York Times, Aug. 21)
Traders on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, run by the business professors at the University of Iowa, gave the Democratic candidate a 61 percent chance of victory versus 38 percent for the Republican. Contracts on the political prediction exchanges are structured so trading prices are expressed as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. Studies have shown that the predictive power of markets is comparable to that of opinion polls. This Reuters story appeared on several news sites, including ABC News and Yahoo! Finance. Link to article

Obama leads in Hawkeye Poll (U.S.News & World Report, Aug. 20)
The AP reports that according to a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL conducted Aug. 4-13, Obama leads in Iowa 44 percent to 38 percent. Including leaners, Obama leads 48 percent to 43 percent. Link to article

Obama leads in Hawkeye Poll (Washington Post, Aug. 19)
In the latest UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL surveying Iowans for their preferences in the presidential race, respondents favor Barack Obama (44 percent) over John McCain (38 percent). The University of Iowa poll was conducted Aug. 4-13, part of which occurred before the Russian invasion of Georgia. Some credit the international crisis for McCain's improved showing in national polls. The ASSOCIATED PRESS article also appeared in the KANSAS CITY STAR, WASHINGTON TIMES, LOS ANGELES TIMES, and several other publications. Link to article

Redlawsk to hold virtual class from DNC (Omaha World Herald, Aug. 19)
University of Iowa professor DAVE REDLAWSK has a long history of political activism, but one thing he's never done is attend the Democratic National Convention. Now that he's secured a ticket, he's aiming to take his students with him -- sort of. With the help of his research assistant, Redlawsk plans to teach his class live from Denver using a webcam. Redlawsk will gather behind-the-scenes footage and excitement from the convention floor, where he is serving as a Democratic delegate for the first time. "It seemed to me that this would be a really incredible opportunity to go to the convention and at the same time involve my students," Redlawsk said. "So I thought really hard about how I might combine the two." The story was also published on the Web site of the CHICAGO TRIBUNE. Link to article

Nelson discusses accuracy of IEM (The Telegraph, Aug. 18)
A story about research using prediction markets to predict political election outcomes explains that, unlike an opinion poll, investors in a market must choose who they think is going to win, not who they necessarily intend to vote for, and must vouch for that candidate with hard cash. Since the Iowa Electronic Markets was founded in 1988, this has proved vastly superior to traditional opinion polls. "Comparing markets and polls across entire elections," says Professor FORREST NELSON, one of the researchers, "the market is closer to the actual outcome than the polls about 74 per cent of the time." The Telegraph is published in Great Britain. Link to article

Poll: Obama, not Clinton, would have benefited (Kansas City Star, Aug. 12)
All that talk that Hillary Clinton, not Barack Obama, would have won Iowa, and then the Democratic nomination, if news of John Edwards' affair had leaked before that state's caucuses is just that -- talk, a University of Iowa professor said today. Professor DAVID REDLAWSK said a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll showed just the opposite -- that the absence of Edwards would have actually boosted Obama, who won the state's caucuses in January. The poll, conducted the night of the caucuses, included a question about second-choice preferences that was answered by 82 percent of those who went with Edwards as their first pick. Of those, 51 percent picked Obama while 32 percent picked Clinton. Link to article

Lewis-Beck: Character counts in close races (Associated Press Radio, Aug. 12)
The average American voter may not know all the issues. But MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, says they have enough information to vote the way they want to vote. And as the AP's Jon Belmont reports on "The Contenders," they get a lot of that from what they make of a candidate's character. Link to audio

Redlawsk says Edwards exit would have aided Obama (LA Times, Aug. 12)
The LA Times "Top of the Ticket" blog reports on DAVID REDLAWSK's response to claims that any early John Edwards exit from the Democratic presidential race would have aided Hillary Clinton: "Au contraire, argues David Redlawsk -- head of the University of Iowa's Hawkeye Poll and, in the walk-up to the caucuses, himself an Edwards backer. Polling on caucus night supervised by Redlawsk indicated 'that the absence of Edwards would have helped (Barack) Obama.'" Link to article

Dowd cites Iowa poll (New York Times, Aug. 12)
Columnist Maureen Dowd writes about divisiveness stirred by Hillary Clinton's supporters in the run-up to the Democratic Convention: "Her former aide Howard Wolfson fanned the divisive flames Monday on ABC News, arguing that Hillary would have beaten Obama in Iowa and become the nominee if John Edwards's affair had come out last year -- an assertion contradicted by a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA survey showing that far more Edwards supporters had Obama as their second choice." Link to article

Lewis-Beck: Voters stick with party preference (Associated Press Radio, Aug. 11)
Political junkies may not want to hear this. But the AP's Rita Foley on "The Contenders" reports most Americans don't have political issues on their minds most of the time -- even in an election year. In the segment, University of Iowa Political Scientist MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK says most American voters know whether they like or dislike a candidate, but can't explain exactly why. Many voters simply vote their longtime party preference, he said. Link to audio

UI pioneered prediction markets (Israel 21c, Aug. 9)
A story about an Israeli company that forecasts business conditions notes that prediction markets, which rely on the "wisdom of crowds," were pioneered at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Israel 21c originates in California. Link to article

Gronbeck discusses parties' Web use (PC World, Aug. 5)
GOP House members recently used the Web to protest a lack of a vote on offshore drilling, showing that they are learning to play by the rules of "Politics 2.0," noted BRUCE GRONBECK, director of the University of Iowa's Center for Media Studies and Political Culture. "One of the great advantages of politicking online is the ability to control delivery technologies," he said. "When the House Republicans wanted to tell citizens that the Democrats wouldn't allow a vote on their energy bill, they went after young voters with messages on such short-message systems as Twitter and Qik as well as the by-now tried-and-true YouTube." Link to article

Lewis-Beck: Few voters are truly independent (Associated Press Radio, Aug. 5)
Americans like to think of themselves as independent. But University of Iowa political science professor MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK says fully 75 percent of the people who grow up in a Republican or Democratic household vote the way their parents do. Lewis-Beck is co-author of "The American Voter Revisited," an update of a 1960 classic. He says only 10 percent of voters are truly independent. Link to audio

Hagle comments on negative campaigning (Guardian, Aug. 3)
Much of John McCain's huge appeal to the middle ground relies on his popular reputation as a military hero and a decent man. Excessive negative campaigning could hurt that valuable political commodity. "This is a first for McCain. This is a very different strategy to see in a McCain campaign," said political scientist TIM HAGLE, a professor at the University of Iowa. The Guardian is published in the United Kingdom, but this story is also being reprinted in the United States. Link to article