UI in the National Political News

February 2008

Jones comments on voting machines (Cleveland Free Times, Feb. 27)
The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has sent $20 million worth of Diebold touch-screen voting machines off for indefinite storage, and is now scrambling to replace them with an optical scan system, an electronic voting system that requires voters to fill in ovals on paper ballots that are fed into scanners. DOUG JONES, a University of Iowa computer science professor, comments on the machines. The FREE TIMES is a weekly news and entertainment publication in Ohio. Link to article

Iowa Electronic Markets traders prefer Obama (Reuters, Feb. 26)
Traders on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, a real-money exchange run by professors at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, gave Barack Obama an 80.4 percent chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, compared to 18 percent for Hillary Clinton, trading data showed. Prediction exchanges give traders an opportunity to buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. The story also appeared in DEEPIKA GLOBAL in India. Link to article

Berg discusses Iowa Electronic Markets (BusinessWeek, undated)
The University of Iowa's JOYCE BERG, director of the Iowa Electronic Markets, discusses how business schools are using the tool for research and teaching. Link to video

Berg explains prediction markets (Portfolio.com, undated)
A video features JOYCE BERG of the Iowa Electronic Markets discussing prediction markets. Portfolio is a magazine about business and finance produced by Condé Nast.
Link to video

Redlawsk comments on GOP support of Obama (Los Angeles Times, Feb. 25)
The 2008 campaign has produced Obamacans (members of the GOP who support Democratic candidate Barack Obama), a surprising development. "Even in this day and age, partisanship carries a lot of weight," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political scientist whose polling last summer picked up early signs of Obama's Republican appeal. The story also appeared in SOUTH COAST TODAY, published in New Bedford, Mass. Link to article

Covington comments on Obama (Guardian, Feb. 24)
Barack Obama has gotten mostly positive press, but now that he has pulled into the lead in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination, he has come under attack in the press. "He is a unique candidate. He is a path breaker. That makes it harder for reporters to treat him like a normal candidate," said CARY COVINGTON, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. The Guardian originates in the UK. Link to article

Iowa Electronic Markets forecasts are accurate (Scientific American, March 2008)
In 1988 the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA launched an experiment to test whether a market using securities for presidential candidates could predict the outcome of the election. In presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS have predicted final results better than the polls three times out of four.
Link to article

Obama leads in IEM (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 13)
Barack Obama was trading at $7.12 a share, down one cent, in prediction markets yesterday, but still well ahead of Hillary Clinton, who was down a penny at $2.91. Opinion polls show a tight race between the two candidates for the Democratic nomination. But in the prediction markets, where investors stake their money on the candidate they believe will win -- and face a loss if they are wrong -- Sen. Obama is far ahead. On the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, operated by the University of Iowa, Sen. Obama pulled ahead of Sen. Clinton in trading last week after Super Tuesday. Link to aricle

IEM traders favor Obama (New York Post, Feb. 12)
Traders on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, a nonprofit exchange run by researchers at the University of Iowa, had expectations similar to those using other prediction markets, giving Barack Obama a 70 percent chance of winning the nomination and Hillary Clinton about a 27 percent chance. As recently as Jan. 1 traders were giving Clinton about a 70 percent chance. Link to article

IEM odds now favor Obama (Reuters, Feb. 12)
Traders wagering on the outcome of the U.S. presidential vote were overwhelmingly betting on Monday that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will defeat former first lady Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and ultimately win the presidency. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit exchange run by researchers at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, gave Obama a 70 percent chance of winning the nomination and Clinton about a 27 percent chance. The story was published on the Web sites of the NEW YORK TIMES, WASHINGTON POST, NEW ZEALAND HERALD, MSNBC, NEW YORK POST and ARAB TIMES (KUWAIT). Link to article

Rietz comments on futures markets (Investment News, Feb. 11)
During the past five presidential elections, the Iowa Electronic Markets has been closer to predicting the ultimate winner, 74 percent of the time, than nearly 1,000 independent polls. "These exchanges were designed to create accuracy, because we're asking people to predict not how they feel but what will happen, which means people have to take things into account other than their personal opinion," said THOMAS RIETZ, associate professor of finance at the University of Iowa. Investment News originates in New York. Link to article

Covington talks about Democratic endgame (The Guardian/Observer, Feb. 10)
The endgame of the Democratic contest for the presidential nomination is unprecedented. "We are now into uncharted territory," said CARY COVINGTON, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa. The Guardian is published in the UK. Link to article

Hagle comments on super delegates (Boston Herald, Feb. 9)
In a close race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the outcome for the "grassroots party" could be determined by the convention's super delegates, elected by officeholders and party officials. "It's a little hypocritical," said University of Iowa professor TIM HAGLE. "These so-called super delegates are not chosen by voters and could end up determining the nominee." Link to article

Redlawsk: Economy becoming top campaign issue (St. Louis Post Dispatch, Feb. 6)
The sagging economy trumped the war, health care, immigration and other issues in driving Missouri and Illinois voters to the polls on Tuesday, early exit surveys showed. "The trend we've seen all month, from state to state, is that the economy is coming to the forefront," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "Often when it comes down to finally voting, people think about their pocketbook, and it's fed at the moment by objective measures." Link to article

IEM beats the polls (InfoWorld, Feb. 4)
It's generally illegal in the United States to bet real money in a predictive market. But the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS was granted an exemption because it is widely used for academic research. The University of Iowa's business school recently audited the market and found that, since 1988, it beat the conventional polls' accuracy by an average of 74 percent. Link to article

Story explains Iowa Electronic Markets (Huffington Post, Feb. 3)
The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, founded by the University of Iowa in 1988, are real-money markets that deal with predicting future events. More succinctly put, the IEM are futures markets. Within the IEM there are several different markets, and conceptually they work something like the Dow Jones stock market. Link to article

UI in the National News Archives