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UI in the National Political News
January 2008
Giuliani move affects reporter's IEM portfolio (St. Petersburg Times, Jan. 31)
A reporter invested $500 in the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, hoping to learn about the stock market, become a more informed voter and make money. He bought 564 Rudy Giuliani shares, believing the candidate's strategy of skipping the early contests and emerging strongly from a crowded field coming out of Florida would work, but ended up selling his entire Giuliani stake for two-tenths of a cent per share. The reporter notes that he exchanged e-mails with GARY FETHKE, former interim president of IEM host University of Iowa, who wished him well and provided insight about how the IEM works. Link to article
Redlawsk: Edwards backers will be conflicted (Deseret Morning News, Jan. 31)
DAVID REDLAWSK, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, comments in a story about John Edwards ending his bid for the White House. Edwards plans to meet individually with Clinton and Obama in private before deciding whether to make an endorsement or remain neutral. "Edwards' supporters will be conflicted about where to go," Redlawsk said. The DESERET MORNING NEWS is based in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Link to article
McCain, Clinton lead Iowa Electronic Markets (Financial Times, Jan. 30)
For the market, the U.S. presidential campaign is taking shape. Judging by trading on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, John McCain's chances of being the Republican nominee are 76 percent. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton's chances are put at 65 percent. Worryingly for Barack Obama, given that the market seems to have called the Republican race correctly, his futures failed to rise after his dramatic win in South Carolina. Link to article
Covington: Giuliani ignored established campaign strategies (CBS, Jan. 30)
Men with opposite campaign strategies in disparate parties chose the same solution Wednesday as a Democrat, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, and a Republican, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, dropped out of the presidential race. CARY COVINGTON, UI associate professor of political science, pointed out the differences, asserting that Edwards' campaign -- although it ultimately failed -- ran a smarter race that competed in early states. "Giuliani ignored clear evidence of at least the past 30 years of presidential-nomination contests and decided not to compete at the beginning, and, rather, to wait for a state where he thought he would do well," Covington said. This story originally appeared in THE DAILY IOWAN. Link to article
IEM is profiled (KABC, Jan. 29)
From the broadcast transcript: "While the presidential candidates are making their pitches for your vote, thousands of people are putting their own money on who they think will win. Professor JOYCE BERG is the director of the Iowa Electronic Markets run by researchers at the University of Iowa. Investors can wager from $5 to $500 to buy contracts on the presidential candidates, or the winner of the November election. 'A person who thought she was a shoo-in for the nominee would want to buy at that price. Buy low, sell high -- just like any other market,' said Berg." Link to article
Poll shows Iowans had fun at caucus (Los Angeles Times, Jan. 28)
A new UNIVERSITY OF IOWA study proves that politics really can be fun. The study shows that 86 percent of Iowans who caucused back on Jan. 3 "had fun." Link to article
Redlawsk: Iowa caucus-goers have fun (Reno Gazette-Journal, Jan. 25)
Reacting to widespread frustration with a predominantly chaotic Nevada caucus, a leading state lawmaker said Monday that she will pursue legislation to return the state to a presidential primary election. This article shows how many caucus-goers in Nevada felt about caucusing, including people who were confused, frustrated or felt the process was too complicated or conflicted with other commitments. However, DAVID REDLAWSK, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, said a recent survey of voters who participated in the Iowa caucus this year found that the vast majority -- 85 percent -- had fun at their caucus. Link to article
Gronbeck: Internet is changing political campaigns (Khaleej Times, Jan. 21)
Having already revolutionized the way campaigns make money, (the Internet) is set to change how candidates get their messages out and take down rivals. Experts have compared it to the way that the emergence of TV and radio changed politics in the Twenties, when politicians realized these new media could be used for political purposes. "Society is reacting in the same way as it did to film, radio and TV. The science of communication simply cannot yet keep up with or predict the scale of the changes this will bring," says BRUCE GRONBECK, a communications professor at the University of Iowa. The Times is based in the United Arab Emirates. The story was also published on the Web site of the ARAB NEWS. Link to article
Redlawsk: Iowans like caucus (Reno Gazette-Journal, Jan. 21)
Saying "it's just not Nevada" to get together with your neighbors to talk politics, a state legislator has introduced a bill to return Nevada to a presidential primary because of widespread frustration with the state's caucus system. Iowans, however, have a different take. DAVID REDLAWSK, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, said a recent survey of voters who participated in the Iowa caucus this year found the vast majority -- 85 percent -- had fun at their caucus. "It shocked me," he said. "And it didn't differentiate between Republicans and Democrats. They found it a fun and energizing experience." Link to article
Lewis-Beck devises election prediction formula (Portfolio, Jan. 14)
A columnist writing about alternative forms of predicting election victories notes that MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK, of the University of Iowa, uses a formula that includes the president's approval rating in July of the election year, and a polling indicator that captures the electorate's feelings about non-economic issues. Link to article
IEM one of oldest prediction markets (Bangor Daily News, Jan. 12)
An editorial states that prediction markets, although not well known among the public, are numerous and growing. One of the oldest is the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, run by the business school at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and open to anyone. Traders can invest up to $500, buying and selling shares based on who they believe will win elections. The Bangor Daily News is published in Maine. Link to article
Reporter tried Iowa Electronic Markets (St. Petersburg Times, Jan. 12)
Scott Long began his column, "I haven't even made my first trade, and I may have already made the biggest investing blunder. No, not on NYSE. On IEM. The Iowa Electronic Markets is used by UNIVERSITY OF IOWA for teaching and research, but ordinary folks like you and me are welcome to invest up to $500 to buy and sell shares in presidential candidates, just as we'd buy and sell shares in companies." The St. Petersburg Times is published in Florida. Link to article
Jones assesses New Hampshire results (Counterpunch, Jan. 11)
Questions have been raised about the New Hampshire Democratic primary after the results were at variance with both advance and exit polls. "My suspicion is that nothing untoward happened here," says DOUG JONES, a professor of computer sciences at the University of Iowa and a member of the board of examiners that approved the use of the same Diebold optical scanning machines in Iowa. "But at the same time, the Diebold machines are vulnerable to viruses that can be spread through the machines by the PCMCIA memory cards, and there are other things that can go wrong too. I'd be much happier if they had a routine random audit procedure in New Hampshire." Counterpunch, a bi-weekly publication based in California, defines itself a "muckraking" publication that prints "stories that the corporate press never prints." This story is running widely on political blogs. Link to article
Iowa Electronic Markets was model for ag markets (Press & Dakotan, Jan. 11)
Predictive marketing is now being used in agriculture. "The UNIVERSITY OF IOWA proved to us several years ago the wisdom of numbers when making predictions," said Bill Towles of Farmetrics Prediction Market. "In an election market, they showed how more accurate a prediction was when the right people were involved in making the guesses." The Press & Dakotan is published in Yangton, S.D. Link to article
N.H. benefits Iowa Electronic Markets investors with Clinton contracts (New York Times, Jan. 10)
Hillary Rodham Clinton's big win in New Hampshire has already made some investors happy -- those who have bought "futures contracts" in Mrs. Clinton in the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. Started in 1988, the electronic trading market is a real market using real money in which investors -- some 2,000 people from around the world -- put up as much as $500 to buy futures contracts in each of the Democratic and Republican candidates. It's pretty much the same way that cattle, hog and financial futures are traded in the pits of Chicago commodity exchanges. In this case, any financial gains will be distributed -- and losses taken -- on the day of each party's nominating convention. Link to article
Rietz notes Iowa Electronic Markets' track record (Chicago Tribune, Jan. 10)
Tribune columnist Bill Barnhart writes, "The New Hampshire primary was a reminder that prediction markets, where bettors are putting money on the line, can have no more value than opinion polls, where participation costs nothing. Nonetheless, prediction markets make a good case. Professors at the University of Iowa who operate the Iowa Electronic Markets recently reported that since 1988 their markets beat 964 presidential election opinion polls 74 percent of the time. Moreover, superior results of the Iowa markets versus polls were evident more than 100 days before elections, said Iowa finance professor THOMAS RIETZ." Link to article
Student bodies in Iowa outnumber N.H. counterparts (Huffington Post, Jan. 9)
The conventional wisdom today about the results of the New Hampshire Democratic primary does not take into account the complexity of the multiple forces at play. There were at least five factors influencing the outcome in Hillary Clinton's unexpected victory here on Tuesday: the so-called "Bradley effect;" the different ways in which primaries and caucuses filter voters; the geographical distribution of the turnout increase in New Hampshire between 2004 and 2008; a shifting gender gap; and the greater number of young voters and college students in Iowa than in N.H. There are substantially fewer young and student voters in New Hampshire than in Iowa -- 22 percent of Democratic Iowa caucus goers were under the age of 30, compared to 18 percent of New Hampshire primary voters. Stanford political scientist David Brady points out that the student bodies at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, Iowa State University and the University of Northern Iowa far outnumber their New Hampshire counterparts. Link to article
Blog cites Iowa Electronic Markets (Financial Times, Jan. 8)
Futures prices on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS suggest that Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the Democratic nomination have been halved since Iowa, while no Republican has as good as a 40 percent chance of being nominated. Link to article
Rietz comments on market movements (MSNBC, Jan. 8)
The past few days have seen a dramatic shift in the online political markets, where traders put down money to predict which candidates will prevail in the primary season. University of Iowa economist TOM RIETZ, a member of the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS' steering committee, said the big role played by the early primaries isn't surprising. "As they resolve uncertainty, they'll move the market one way or the other." Link to article
Iowa Electronic Markets flip cited (InformationWeek, Jan. 8)
At the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS have undergone a flip since the outcome of the Jan. 3 Democratic caucuses. The markets had shown Clinton likely to be the eventual Democratic nominee by a 2-1 margin at the end of last year. After the caucuses, they started showing Obama as the likely nominee, and now have him up by a 2-1 margin. This story appeared on the online version of InformationWeek a weekly print magazine that reaches 440,000 Business Technology professionals at more than a quarter million unique locations. [EDITOR'S NOTE: The IEM numbers have changed significantly since this story was reported and following Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries. For the latest trading figures, visit http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_Quotes.html ] Link to article
Book analyzes Iowa Electronic Markets results (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 8)
A comprehensive analysis of the prediction markets run by the University of Iowa is available in "Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research," by JOYCE BERG, ROBERT FORSYTHE, FORREST NELSON and THOMAS RIETZ.
Link to article
Iowa Electronic Markets investors now favor Obama (LA Biz, Jan. 8)
A story about today's New Hampshire primary notes that the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's business school, now gives Barack Obama a 66 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination. LA Biz is part of LA Observed, an online journal in Los Angeles. Link to article
Obama contract price leading Iowa Electronic Markets (Bloomberg, Jan. 7)
A story about the New Hampshire primary notes that as of Monday afternoon, the day before voting began, investors on the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's Iowa Electronic Market said Barack Obama had a 66 percent probability of winning the Democratic Party's nomination. Link to article
Redlawsk quoted in caucus stories (Pravda, Jan. 2-3)
DAVID REDLAWSK, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, was quoted in two stories published in the Slovak-language daily newspaper PRAVDA, based in Bratislava, the capital city of the Slovak Republic. One story focused on the compressed primary schedule, while the other explained the process of the Iowa Caucuses.
Jan. 2 story (Page 7)
Jan. 3 story (Page 10)
UI polls cited (Chicago Tribune, Jan. 6)
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA polls showed that 57 percent of Iowa voters favored earned citizenship for the undocumented and only 23 percent favored deportation. Link to article
Redlawsk comments on caucuses (Prospect Magazine, Jan. 5)
The Iowa caucuses have proven themselves as hard to kill as Dracula. According to DAVE REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political scientist, it could be done. But it would require legislation, or consensus among 48 states (not including Iowa or New Hampshire) and 96 state parties. Legislation, he suspects, would be ruled unconstitutional.Consensus on a different system has been as elusive as peace in the Middle East. Meanwhile, he notes, there's something to be said for keeping at least one place where real candidates have to meet real voters, and Iowans have 36 years' experience. Prospect Magazine is published in the UK. Link to article
Redlawsk comments on caucus turnout (Argus Leader, Jan. 5)
A key element of Barack Obama's eight-point victory in the Iowa caucuses was the ability to deliver voters to gymnasiums and living rooms on a cold Iowa night. "No one in their wildest dreams expected 240,000," says DAVE REDLAWSK, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa. The Argus Leader is published in Sioux Falls, SD. Link to article
Hagle discusses Romney prospects (Deseret Morning News, Jan. 5)
TIM HAGLE, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said another second-place finish for Mitt Romney in New Hampshire could cost him the next key vote in Michigan on Jan. 15. Romney grew up in Michigan and his father, George, was a popular governor there. "This means more work for the Romney campaign down the road," Hagle said. The Deseret Morning News is published in Utah. Link to article
Hagle comments on Paul fundraising (Dallas Morning News, Jan. 4)
A zealous band of supporters has helped propel Texas congressman Ron Paul to the front of the Republican presidential pack, at least in fundraising. But money hasn't translated into support for the small-government, anti-war candidate. "The first thing I thought of was 'President Dean,'" said University of Iowa political science professor TIM HAGLE. "Here was a candidate who raised a ton of money over the Internet [in 2004], then when it came to caucus night, nothing. I just don't think he's got the organization despite all the money." Link to article
Redlawsk explained caucuses (Huffington Post, Jan. 4)
Mayhill Fowler wrote, "Over Thanksgiving weekend I had interviewed DAVID REDLAWSK, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and an experienced caucus leader, for an OffTheBus piece written by Chase Martyn of the Iowa Independent. As a teacher, Redlawsk was able to show me exactly how caucus works. I learned, for example, the importance of the crucial moment when the number to the right of a percentage decimal point comes into play, either to take away a delegate from a candidate or to award an extra one. At this moment in precinct 8, the John Edwards and Barack Obama captains would seal their bargain. Since I knew from Redlawsk that the caucus leader has the power to evict press and observers if the room grows too crowded, or not to allow outsiders in the first place, and since I was determined to observe a caucus, I asked Redlawsk to attend his. Graciously, he said yes. Neither of us knew what a chaotic evening awaited us..." Link to article
Steinberg calls Iowa 'bellwether state' (The Scotsman, Jan. 4)
Barack Obama's win in the Iowa caucuses was historic. "This is a bellwether state," ALLEN STEINBERG, professor of history at the University of Iowa, said. "It is representative of the nation as a whole. There's a generational shift taking place. Young people are really concerned. It's a big deal what happened last night, unprecedented in American history." Link to article
Redlawsk comments on candidate spouses (Deccan Herald, Jan. 4)
DAVID REDLAWSK, who teaches political science at the University of Iowa, said that polls showed that most people do not vote for a candidate based on that person's spouse, although that might be different this year in the case of Hilary Clinton. But generally, he said, the spouses might as well say what they want. "It might get folks up in arms," he said, "but it also gets media attention." The Deccan Herald is published in India. Link to article
Young voters carried Obama (MTV, Jan. 4)
The story reports: "In this era, there exists the sentiment that youth are apathetic, that they don't care about politics, and that they won't get out to vote. On Thursday night, the victory of Senator Barack Obama in Iowa's Democratic caucus gave us our first clue that perhaps that sentiment no longer rings true." Link to article
IEM investors favored Clinton (NewsMax, Jan. 4)
Before the Iowa caucuses, a futures market conducted by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA had Hillary Clinton the likely Democratic nominee, with her shares selling for 63.3 cents compared to Barack Obama's 24.4 cents. NewsMax originates in Florida.
Link to article
Hagle assesses Huckabee appeal (Dallas Morning News, Jan. 4)
Mike Huckabee's strong showing in Iowa shows he can perform well in states with huge pockets of evangelicals. It remains to be seen, however, if Huckabee has the resources and message to win in New Hampshire and other states according the TIM HAGLE of the University of Iowa. "He has work to do," Hagle said. "But it's clear that there are voters who like his approach." Link to article
Covington calls Edwards 'long shot' (Denver Post, Jan. 4)
Most political experts said Iowa was a must win for John Edwards, who has essentially been campaigning here for three years. "Given the compressed schedule and the fact that he has to rely on public financing, Edwards is a long shot," said CARY COVINGTON, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. Link to article
Covington: Dems satisfied with candidates (Los Angeles Times, Jan. 4)
The large Democratic caucus turnout numbers indicate that "the Democrats are basically satisfied with their choices and comfortable supporting one, two, three or even four candidates," said CARY COVINGTON, a University of Iowa political analyst.
Link to article
IEM predicts Clinton win (Moldova.org, Jan. 3)
The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, a futures trading market experiment at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, predicts Hillary Clinton will be the eventual Democratic nominee and win the U.S. presidency. Moldova.org is a non-political, non-governmental and non-commercial portal that provides Moldova's and international news. The story originated with United Press International. Link to article
Squire comments on Obama excitement (New Zealand Herald, Jan. 3)
Young people in Iowa flocked to Barack Obama's camp in droves, compared to older Iowans who forged the base of Hillary Clinton's support. "I think Obama was able to generate some excitement about his candidacy that Clinton could just not generate and Obama's sort of promise of something different was a little bit better than Clinton's focus on experience," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a visiting political science professor at the University of Iowa. Link to article
Gronbeck discusses caucus strategy (TIME, Jan. 3)
BRUCE GRONBECK, a communication studies professor at the University of Iowa, is quoted in a story about caucus psychology. Once the weaker candidates are knocked out, "the serious group persuasion begins, where caucus-attendees who are not in groups large enough to be viable are courted," says Gronbeck, co-editor of the book "Presidential Campaigns and American Self Images." Link to article
Osborn: targeted appeals smart for Clinton, Obama (The Scotsman, Jan. 3)
The Clinton campaign is appealing to women attending their first political nominating caucus, while the Obama campaign seeks new young voters. TRACY OSBORN, a political science expert at the University of Iowa, said, "It's a smart angle by both of those campaigns. Barack Obama could bring in minority voters and younger voters and Hillary Clinton is likely to bring in women voters, and typically those are groups that don't participate in a caucus." THE SCOTSMAN is based in Edinburgh, Scotland. Link to article
Covington: Giuliani may finish fifth or sixth (Miami Herald, Jan. 3)
Reflecting Florida's newfound clout in the primary season, Giuliani has made 25 trips to the state, tied with New Hampshire. He has more staff in Florida than any other state. But few candidates have successfully bucked Iowa, which has held the nation's first caucuses since 1972. A slow start typically saps a candidate's momentum and fundraising. "Rudy Giuliani is looking at finishing fifth or sixth, not having put up much of a race here, and he'll have to buck a pretty robust historical trend that says he'll have a hard time recovering," said CARY COVINGTON, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. Link to article
Squire comments on 'lower tier' candidates (L.A. Times, Jan. 3)
What do Bill Richardson, Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd have in common? If only one of them were running for the Democratic presidential nomination, it might be a different-looking race. "Had only one of them run, it probably would have given that candidate a better chance to break into the top tier of candidates," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a University of Iowa political analyst. But given the "built-in advantage based on celebrity" that Clinton and Obama have, and the fact that Edwards placed second in the 2004 caucuses, it's unclear how high one of the other three could have risen, he said. Link to article
Gronbeck: Iowa a 'signal for voters' nationwide (Dallas Morning News, Jan. 3)
While Iowa's tiny delegate pool adds little to the overall tally needed to win party nominations, success in the state generates media attention, campaign cash and the political momentum for upcoming elections, including Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries. Knowing this, candidates are willing to make one last trip to the pig farm if it means winning the caucus. "It's now a matter of who you get out and who can convince their people to come out in the cold," said BRUCE GRONBECK, a professor of communications studies at the University of Iowa. "Given the sheer amount of national coverage, Iowa is a signal for voters across the country." Link to article
Campaign workers learn to distinguish UI, ISU (Washington Post, Jan. 3)
Iowa, which surely is the political term for "heartland," is a warm temporary home for hundreds of young campaign workers from New Jersey and Massachusetts, Nebraska and Colorado. They camp out for months, studying the terrain and the traditions. Staffers in union towns know not to drive foreign cars. Workers in Ames learn never to confuse Iowa State with the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Cyclones and Hawkeyes don't mix. Link to article
UI student likes Huckabee's 'fair tax' (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 3)
One of Mr. Huckabee's chief economic promises is the "fair tax," a national sales tax that would replace the income tax, and with it all the breaks in the tax code that corporations jealously guard. Conservative and liberal critics alike argue that such a tax would have to be higher than Mr. Huckabee suggests to raise enough revenue, and they say it would hit the very working-class people he aims to help. But the fairness argument struck a chord with JASON DOWNS, a 22-year-old student at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA who went to see Mr. Huckabee speak yesterday. "Right now the middle class is paying more taxes, the upper class has abilities to get accountants and move funds around and all that. Where if you have a consumption tax, it's going to be a fair amount," said Mr. Downs. Link to article
Covington: butter cow signature photo op (Sydney Morning Herald, Jan. 3)
"At the state fair [in August]. Candidates show up there, taste the wares, get their picture taken with the butter cow. Mainly you're showing the flag, showing your interest in the state. Plus it's in a refrigerated room. Where else would you rather go?" - Professor CARY COVINGTON, University of Iowa. THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD is based in Australia. Link to article
Chang will miss caucus chaos (New York Times, Jan. 3)
In an op-ed, LAN SAMANTHA CHANG, director of the University of Iowa Writers' Workshop, writes: "Soon, life here in Iowa returns to normal. After months of campaigning from basement apartments, the guests from out of state will head for the airports. Their vacated apartments will be aired out and put to order. As several thousand reporters move on to New Hampshire, the local talk will turn from caucusing to a more global topic: weather. Iowans will settle in for the heart of winter, when the political yard signs will be buried in snow. As recent newcomers from Massachusetts, my husband, Rob, and I will regret the closing of the Iowa primary season." Link to article
Obama told UI students to 'come back and caucus' (New York Times, Jan. 2)
One of the $64,000-questions about Thursday's Iowa caucuses is how much students from out of state will influence the outcome. A big argument has been raging here about rules that allow out-of-state students who attend schools in Iowa to vote as long as they are not registered elsewhere. Although presidential campaigns here have been notorious over the years for using out-of-staters to pack rallies and organize, at issue here is their actual participation in the caucuses: some see it as a hijacking of their process, while others see it as a voting rights issue and say that as many people as possible should be encouraged to participate. "Don't let somebody tell you that you are not part of this process, because your future is at stake," Mr. Obama said in a visit to Grinnell in December. He told students at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, "if you're going to be out of state, I want you to come back and caucus." Link to article
Gronbeck: Edwards must do well in Iowa (Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 2)
Some contenders need a strong showing in Iowa to avoid going bust, such as Huckabee on the GOP side and Edwards on the Democratic side, while others have built up enough campaign structure in other states to finish back and still be formidable going forward. "If John Edwards is going to stay in, he's going to have to do well in Iowa," says BRUCE GRONBECK, professor of communication studies at the University of Iowa. "He's been able to use personal appeal [to compete in Iowa, but] he's going to have to do more than that to win in the other states." Link to article
Squire evaluates organizational strength (Christian Science Monitor, Jan. 2)
With most polls showing a very close race among the top candidates in both parties, the outcome hinges on which campaigns are best at turning out their supporters. Among the Democrats, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is counting on young voters and independents to caucus for him. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is counting on women and older voters. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is counting on men and on experienced caucusgoers. All three have equal support among union households, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll. And by appearances, it's a tie in organizational strength. "Given the number of phone calls and people knocking on doors, they're all very active," says PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political scientist at the University of Iowa in Iowa City. "I don't think any one organization has any advantage over any other." Link to article
Covington: voters respond best to real people (Miami Herald, Jan. 2)
Think of an Iowa caucus campaign as an iceberg: The most visible part -- the candidate -- is just a small part of an enormous entity. In Iowa's hinterlands, the best-funded campaigns have assembled massive teams. Workers in dozens of field offices oversee volunteers, make calls, knock on doors, pore over voter lists, recruit precinct captains, train supporters in the complex caucus rules and follow up with voters who attend campaign appearances. Field offices are the key to doing such work well because they're an efficient place to organize and because "a real person is what voters respond to," said CARY COVINGTON, a University of Iowa political scientist. "Especially someone they see in their community." Link to article
UI students discuss politics (CNN, Jan. 2)
Atul Nakasi, president of the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA College Democrats, and John Mulrooney, secretary of the student group, were interviewed on CNN's "American Morning." Link to article
Iowa Electronic Markets cited (New York Times, Jan. 2)
Researchers involved in the Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit real-money exchange run by professors at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, have found that political markets often forecast election results better than polls. The Iowa market only offers contracts on which party is likely to win the US general election and which candidates are likely to win the Republican and Democratic nominations. This Reuters story also appeared on the Web sites of YAHOO! NEWS and INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS, based in Dublin, Ireland. Link to article
Story features Iowa Electronic Markets (KSL, Jan. 2)
Would you be willing to invest in a candidate if you could make money when the election was over? In other words, if the candidate were a stock, would you want to invest in a few shares? Well, you can! It's the real deal, and it's legal. The business school at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA began open trading on its "Iowa Electronic Market" back in June of 2006 -- when the candidates were in the very early stages of their campaigns. The business school says the "IEM" is primarily for teaching and research so students can learn how markets work, but anybody can buy in. KSL television and radio is based in Salt Lake City, Utah. Link to article
Immigration cited as election issue (Chicago Tribune, Jan. 2)
A recent poll by the University of Iowa ranked immigration the fourth-most important issue among Republican caucusgoers, behind terrorism, the economy and the war in Iraq. Among Democrats polled, immigration ranked seventh among hot-button issues. DAVID REDLAWSK, a political science professor and director of the University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll, said the gap between Republican and Democratic voters regarding immigration may be due in part to candidate rhetoric. Link to article
College campuses quiet before caucuses (Chicago Tribune, Jan. 2)
The Drake University campus was quiet this week before the Jan. 3 caucuses. At the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, in Iowa City, it has been equally quiet this week. "I haven't seen a lot of people come back for any of the campaigns," said Mark Bowers, a student organizer for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Nearly a third of undergraduates at the University of Iowa are from the Chicago area. If they return to Iowa for the caucuses, that could help Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, something of a hometown favorite at the school. Link to article
Paul picking up support in Iowa (Newsday, Jan. 2)
In just two months, Ron Paul's support among Republicans in tomorrow's Iowa caucuses has more than doubled to 9 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register poll. That is nearly twice the 5 percent for Rudy Giuliani. A new CNN poll has Paul and Giuliani tied here at 8 percent. "No one expects a lot from Giuliani in Iowa," said University of Iowa political scientist DAVID REDLAWSK, noting that the New Yorker merely hopes to make a respectable showing here as he focuses on big-delegate primaries elsewhere. "But to have him lose to Ron Paul, who is essentially considered on the fringe, would be an unquestionable embarrassment." The newspaper is published in New York. Link to article
Campaigns seek young voters (USA Today, Jan. 2)
Candidates are trying hard to persuade young voters like Riddle to come out on caucus night, sending text messages, visiting college campuses and offering internships on their campaigns. But the presidential hopefuls may find themselves unable to compete with jobs, busy social lives and sheer political apathy. "If (young voters) do turn out, they can make a huge difference," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. "But I don't think we're going to see the caucuses flooded." Groups supporting the candidates also are targeting students, sponsoring pizza parties on caucus day, organizing carpools for out-of-state college students, and offering their couches for those who need a place to stay that night. "We're trying to make it more student friendly," said GREG BAKER, chairman of the college Republicans at the University of Iowa. Link to article
Squire analyzes Giuliani campaign (Boston Globe, Jan. 2)
In Iowa, some analysts believe, Giuliani's half-hearted campaign effort was a mistake. His record of cutting taxes, crime, and welfare in New York and his strong stand against terrorism, not to mention his famous role in New York City's response and recovery from the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, are all assets in most voters' minds. "This is clearly, in my view, a bungled opportunity for Giuliani," said PEVERILL SQUIRE, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "In a crowded Republican field, he was positioned to finish in the top three if he had made a serious effort." Hearing about his personal life "obviously works against him a bit, but if he had been here, put in the time, and emphasized the other characteristics which tend to be received more positively, he could have overcome it," Squire said. Link to article
Presidential aide graduated from UI (Washington Times, Jan. 2)
President Bush is benefiting from a Karl Rove-free White House and the lower-profile approach of his successor, who high-ranking Republican Party activists and operatives say helped the administration to key victories at the end of last year. Mr. Bush named Barry Jackson in September to replace Mr. Rove, the "architect" of Mr. Bush's electoral successes. In 1983, Jackson graduated from the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA with a degree in journalism. Link to article
Many Iowans undecided before caucuses (Boston Herald, Jan. 2)
As candidates begin their down-to-the-wire campaign marathon leading up to the first-in-the-nation caucus, an indecisive air on both sides of the aisle threatens to leave the race wide open going into New Hampshire, with the potential to diminish Iowa's stature and throw the race into confusion. "For Democrats who are undecided, it's because they like everybody," said University of Iowa pollster DAVID REDLAWSK. "On the Republican side, being undecided is really about being unhappy about the choices." Redlawsk said there's a chance in some precincts that Democrat backers of lower-tier candidates could unite to form a viable "uncommitted" bloc. "But the most likely scenario is they'll all be bunched together," Redlawsk said, meaning that there could be no Iowa winner on the Democratic side. Link to article
Hagle notes independence of Iowa voters (Deseret Morning News, Jan. 2)
TIM HAGLE, a political science professor at the University of Iowa and an active Republican, said Iowa's small size gives candidates a chance to interact directly with voters as they shape their campaigns -- "to work the kinks out.... It's not that you want the candidates to pander to these folks, you want them to listen to them." Hagle said the independence of Iowa voters more than makes up for the criticism that the state is too white and too rural to represent the rest of the country. "Iowa is a very purple state," he said, neither Republican red nor Democratic blue. About 40 percent of Iowans are independents, registering as having no political affiliation, Hagle said. The Deseret Morning News is published in Utah. Link to article
Redlawsk notes Huckabee's rise (Christian Science Monitor, Jan. 2)
After former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson failed to catch fire, the activists say, Republicans moved toward Mike Huckabee, who showed with his second-place finish in the Ames straw poll in August and his rising poll numbers that he had momentum. "We saw a very traditional bandwagon effect once Huckabee broke through some threshold of viability," says DAVID REDLAWSK a pollster at the University of Iowa in Iowa City. Link to article
Squire: Clinton can survive weak Iowa showing (Canada.com Jan. 2)
Recent poll results portend a nail-biting Thursday evening for Hillary Clinton in Iowa, where anything but a victory in the caucuses would likely be viewed as a major setback at the start of the presidential primary season. "Senator Clinton can survive a second- or even third-place showing in Iowa, as long as the gap behind the first-place finisher is not too large," said University of Iowa political scientist PEVERILL SQUIRE. Link to article
Rietz says profit motive gives IEM edge (Marketplace, Jan. 1)
The Iowa Electronic Markets and other similar futures predictions markets can do a better job than public opinion polls in predicting election outcomes because they are driven by profit motive, said TOM RIETZ, a finance professor at the University of Iowa and member of the IEM steering committee. Marketplace is a production of American Public Media and is heard on hundreds of public radio stations across the country. Link to article
Caucus-goers face several issues (Omaha World-Herald, Jan. 1)
Opinion polls show that Americans of all political stripes agree upon the top issues facing this country: the Iraq war and national defense, health care and the economy. These are pocketbook and security issues, underscored by falling house prices, rising insurance costs, and last week's assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto. All are on Iowans' minds as Thursday's caucuses approach, and they will assuredly remain top issues long after the caucuses conclude. "They are clearly the three big ones," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, who helped to conduct a poll in late October that gauged the priorities of Iowa caucus-goers. Other issues, including immigration, also are on voters' minds, but the importance they place upon them may vary depending upon whether the voters describe themselves as Republican or Democrat. For example, in the poll conducted by the University of Iowa, 13.7 percent of Republicans identified immigration as one of the most important issues facing the nation, while just 2.4 percent of Democrats put it at the top. Link to article
IEM seen as better predictor than polls (Dallas Morning News, Jan. 1)
Michelle Collins, who is studying accounting and finance at the University of Iowa, is among the thousands of traders who buy and sell contracts in the Iowa Electronic Markets, which is run by the university's business school. Traders can put money behind the candidate they think will win the nomination through contracts that pay out $1 each if a particular candidate wins the nomination. The market has gained media attention because it's better than most polls at predicting how people will vote, said TOM RIETZ, a University of Iowa professor who works on the project. While polls generally come within five percentage points of the voting results, the markets have averaged a 1.3-percentage-point difference, he said. "The closer you get to the election, the more accurate the Iowa Electronic Markets become," Mr. Rietz said.
Link to article
Redlawsk comments on caucus precinct leaders (News-Journal, Jan. 1)
Getting people to the caucuses is kind of like herding cattle into a pen of competing feed bins and then making sure they eat your hay. Especially among Democrats, precinct captains can be invaluable in this process. Supporters of Democrats who fall below 15 percent in a caucus's first ballot are then free to go to their second choice. Horse-trading in the second round could determine this year's Democratic winner. "One of the tricks about Iowa organization is that so much of it is under the radar," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political scientist who supports Edwards. "Who do you have as precinct leaders? Which is something that all campaigns claim to have, but you never know until caucus night." The newspaper is published in Wilmington, Del. Link to article
Gronbeck comments on Richardson campaign (Santa Fe New Mexican, Jan. 1)
For months, Gov. Bill Richardson has said his goal is to be among the top three in Iowa. He's still saying that. But by last week, he seemed to be downplaying that goal, stating he plans to stay in the race until at least Feb. 5, when more than 20 states, including California, Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma and New Mexico, hold primaries and caucuses. BRUCE GRONBECK, director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture, said Richardson "got off to an awfully good start in Iowa. "He was the only governor," Gronbeck said, "And his initial ads were clever and got him a lot of attention. But he ran on his résumé for an awfully long time. He constantly said, 'I can do it because I'm a governor.' But he hasn't really gotten around to talking about a range of issues important to the state." Link to article
Obama, Clinton target voter groups (Boston Globe, Jan. 1)
Democratic front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, locked in battle in the first state contest on the road to the presidential nomination, are eyeing first-time caucus participants in Iowa as a key to victory. The Clinton campaign is appealing to women attending their first political nominating caucus, set for Thursday in Iowa, while the Obama campaign seeks new young voters. "It's a smart angle by both of those campaigns," said TRACY OSBORN, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa. "Barack Obama could bring in minority voters and younger voters and Hillary Clinton is likely to bring in women voters and typically those are groups that don't participate in a caucus." Link to article
UI in the National News Archives
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