UI in the National Political News
July 2008
Lewis-Beck co-authored book about voter knowledge (Washington Post, July 24)
MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK of the University of Iowa is among the authors of "The American Voter Revisited." "You could get depressed," says Lewis-Beck. In-depth interviews conducted with 1,500 people during the two most recent presidential elections revealed that the "majority of people don't have many issues in mind" when they discuss voting, Lewis-Beck says. They tend to inherit their party allegiance from their parents, and those beliefs tend to stay fixed throughout their lives, he says. The article also appeared in the HOUSTON CHRONICLE, and is also noted in the BALTIMORE SUN and in a July 25 editorial in the TIMES-ARGUS in Vermont.
Miller comments on presidential challenges (Bloomberg, July 21)
Historians say the economic and foreign policy crises in George Bush's wake will present either Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain with the biggest challenges to a new president since Herbert Hoover left office during the Great Depression. Eighty-two percent of citizens say the economy is doing badly and make it the top issue. "People tend to ignore the economy when it's doing well and pay a lot of attention to it when it's not," says ARTHUR MILLER, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.
Gronbeck comments on 'YouTube Election' (CNN, July 18)
The Obama campaign is taking its message straight to the voters through YouTube, rather than relying on the media to deliver snippets of speeches. "The big change is the sheer expansion of Politics 2.0," said BRUCE GRONBECK, the director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture. "We have simply never have had the same ability to make and distribute messages, and the equal ability to access them."
IEM noted as legal prediction market (Science Daily, July 14)
A prediction market is a financial speculation market in which participants bet on the outcome of an event. In most cases, participants use fake money. But at some markets, including the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, it's legal to bet a small amount of real money.
Osborn comments on vice president options (The Guardian, July 13)
The race is now on for both John McCain and Barack Obama to choose a running mate and speculation is running wild that either, or even both, candidates will pick a woman. "There is a lot of advantage to be gained from it, especially on the Democrats' side," said TRACY OSBORN, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. "They have a lot of people who backed Clinton recovering from a long fight. Picking a woman might appease them." The Guardian is published in the UK.
Albrecht comments on McCain's economic plan (Politico, July 9)
John McCain's campaign has released a statement signed by 300 economists who "enthusiastically support" his "Jobs for America" economic plan, providing a heavyweight testimonial to the presumptive Republican nominee's "broad and powerful economic agenda." WILLIAM ALBRECHT, professor emeritus at the University of Iowa, viewed the plan in general terms. "Overall, I thought [McCain's] economics was better than Obama's," he said. While he favors McCain's overall outlook on the economy, Albrecht said he is not sure that he would agree with all the individual measures in the Arizona senator's economic platform. He sounded a particularly skeptical note when asked about McCain's pledge to balance the federal budget within four years. "He's not going to balance the budget," Albrecht said. "Nobody's going to balance the budget."
Hagle: Voters often decide by word of mouth (Kansas City Star, July 9)
In Missouri, Barack Obama's presidential campaign is hiring 150 new paid staffers to fan out across the state and talk about the candidate's positions. Discussing the move, University of Iowa political scientist TIM HAGLE likened voters to consumers in making decisions -- often by word of mouth. "If your neighbor across street has an Obama sign, you're more likely to trust that person than someone calling you from an automatic phone bank, a person you don't know or where they're from," he said.
More IEM-type prediction markets could emerge (Business Week, July 7)
Here's a prediction: Prediction markets are about to become federally regulated. On July 7, the federal agency that regulates futures markets will begin reviewing two months' worth of responses to a question the agency posed to the public in May: "Should the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulate prediction markets?" If the public's responses thus far-or the language in the CFTC's request for comment-is any indication, it's likely that the agency ultimately will. When it does, get ready to see more small-stakes prediction markets like the experimental, $500-maximum-bet IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, or IEM, that forecast things like Presidential elections or future monetary policy.
Redlawsk develops new method to study how voters decide (Science News, July 5)
A story about how informed citizens avoid information overload by taking strategic shortcuts before casting their ballots cites a unique research approach devised by UI Political Scientist DAVID REDLAWSK and Richard Lau, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J. Political scientists typically use surveys to examine voters' attitudes about political issues and candidates, but Redlawsk and Lau use computers to model campaigns and track how people actually decide whom to vote for in mock elections. Their method mimics the overwhelming flow of information during presidential campaigns, allowing volunteers to uncover information they want to learn by clicking a box on the screen. Participants register with a party, vote in a mock primary and then cast ballots in the general election. SCIENCE NEWS is a news magazine that covers research in all fields of science.
IEM cited in speculative trading column (Yahoo! Canada, July 2)
In a column on speculative trading with binary options, Kurt Eckhardt cites how the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has been allowed to list an election market.
IEM traders favor Obama (Reuters, July 1)
Traders in prediction markets are betting Barack Obama will defeat Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by business professors at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, give the Democratic candidate a 66 percent chance of victory versus 34 percent for the Republican.