UI in the National Political News

May 2008

Redlawsk: Most Iowa Democrats look safe in November (Huffington Post, May 23)
A story about Iowa's course in the upcoming general election notes that the Democrats currently have the momentum. "The Iowa Republicans seem demoralized at the moment," according to DAVID REDLAWSK at the University of Iowa. Redlawsk mentions the indisputable fact that Democrats have taken control of the state house and senate and have kept the governor's office. "And it looks like Republicans will not have strong candidates against Harkin or Braley, and marginal against Loebsack -- even Boswell looks reasonably safe if he gets through his primary." Link to article

Covington comments on Obama prospects (Guardian, May 18)
A congressional victory by a Democrat in the Deep South has Republican operatives worried. But does this signify a trend that could carry a Democrat into the White House? "The Mississippi result bodes well for the Democrats in Congress. It does not mean anything for the national election," said Professor CARY COVINGTON, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. Link to article

Column notes Iowa Electronic Markets (The World, May 14)
A column on prediction markets notes that the first computerized political market was created at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. "That market outperformed polls three-quarters of the time, and its election-eve forecasts were better than any pundit's and better than any poll," said James Surowiecki, author of "The Wisdom of Crowds." That Iowa prediction market begged for special permission from the government and got a waiver that limits bets to $500. "That makes them less accurate," Surowiecki said. "Real money is what makes it work." The World is a daily newspaper based in Oregon. Link to article

IEM noted as first prediction market (Jewish World Review, May 14)
In this story about prediction markets, such as futures markets where people bet on the future price of oil, gold and pork bellies, it's noted that the first computerized political market, the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, was created at the University of Iowa. "That market outperformed polls three-quarters of the time, and its election-eve forecasts were better than any pundit's and better than any poll," says James Surowiecki, author of "The Wisdom of Crowds." Link to article

IEM predicts McCain's presidential chances (Barron's, May 13)
John McCain's presidential campaign is doomed -- at least, if you still believe what political futures markets indicate. In the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, set up at the University of Iowa, Mr. McCain's Republican Party gets a 41 percent chance of winning the popular vote for the White House. Link to article

Gronbeck: Length of this year's campaign unprecedented (Baltimore Sun, May 13)
This year's Democratic Party nomination campaign has taken its toll on the candidates participating, both physically and mentally. At least one observer thinks a lack of sleep and other pressures has led to some bad word choices, such as Obama's comment that working-class people are "bitter." BRUCE GRONBECK, professor of communications studies at the University of Iowa, said the long-running primary season, which began with campaign stops in February 2007, is "unprecedented." Link to article

Limitations of prediction markets noted (Wall Street Journal, May 13)
An opinion piece questioning the value of political prediction markets notes that six months ago, Barack Obama was given less than a 30 percent chance of being the Democratic presidential nominee on the Iowa Electronic Markets, set up by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Link to article

Redlawsk: Pressure might be on Clinton to drop out (Bloomberg, May 6)
In the ongoing campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, the economy, especially energy costs, has moved front and center as the two candidates focused their messages for today's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. Both candidates need at least one victory. For Clinton "the pressure to drop out will be immense if she loses both of these states," DAVID REDLAWSK, a political science professor at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, said. Link to article

Peterson comments on late-night comedy and politics (WTAX, May 5)
RUSSELL PETERSON, a faculty member in the UI's Department of American Studies, talks about his new book, "Strange Bedfellows: How Late-Night Comedy Turns Democracy into a Joke." He says some political comedy can reinforce the cynicism and apathy about the democratic process. The radio station is based in Springfield, Ill. Link to audio clip

IEM one of two regulated prediction markets (Globeinvestor.com, May 2)
Only two U.S. prediction markets are officially regulated by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) -- the IOWA ELECTRONICS MARKET (IEM) at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, which specializes in politics, and HedgeStreet, a division of Britain's IG Group Holdings, which offers a wide assortment of contracts. However, dozens of other exchanges have popped up around the world to cash in on the hype. The Hollywood Stock Exchange uses play money and focuses on entertainment topics such as movie box office receipts. GLOBEINVESTOR.COM is the online presence of THE GLOBE AND MAIL, based in Toronto, Canada. Link to article

Berg: IEM used for research, teaching purposes (AOL Money, May 2)
The rising popularity of markets where guesses are wagered on the outcome of everything from presidential elections to celebrity marriages has led to a situation that, well, many had predicted. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday said it is considering whether these markets should be regulated, and how. In the United States, the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by the University of Iowa business school, is one of the better-known markets in operation. It has about 1,000 traders at any given time who can invest up to $500 to trade on a variety of contracts, including the outcome of the presidential elections. In 1993, the commission granted an exemption to IEM, which is primarily used for research and teaching purposes, said the market's director, JOYCE BERG, who is also an accounting professor. This AP story appeared in seven other media outlets. Link to article