UI in the National Political News

October 2008

IEM predicts Obama victory (Bloomberg, Oct. 31)
The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, operated by the University of Iowa, has traded political futures for the last 20 years for education and research. Traders on that exchange give the Democratic candidate an 86 percent chance of victory next week in the "winner take all" market. Link to article

Redlawsk comments on challenges of polling (NBC Nightly News, Oct. 30)
University of Iowa Political Scientist DAVID REDLAWSK is featured in a piece about the challenges of polling -- issues such as whether people are giving honest answers or trying to skew results, and lack of time and interest to participate in polls. The story notes that many polls do not include calls to cell phones, even though upwards of 17 percent of Americans, especially the young, have dropped their landlines. Redlawsk points out that low-income individuals may also be underrepresented in such polls because people without access to credit might rely on pay-as-you-go cell phones. Link to article

Osborn comments on Palin's future in politics (Chicago Tribune, Oct. 30)
TRACY OSBORN, who studies women in politics at the University of Iowa, is quoted about Sarah Palin's future in politics. "In many ways her future is about the future of the party itself," Osborn said. "Do they highlight limited government? Do they strengthen the social conservatism? It could end up so many different ways." If Palin seeks a presidential bid in 2012, Osborn said she should use the next four years to become more familiar with national issues. "She needs to bulk up on policy," Osborn said. The story also appeared in the ARIZONA REPUBLIC. Link to article

IEM puts money on Obama (Tigard Times, Oct. 29)
Democratic candidate Barack Obama has an 87 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, an electronic market for wagering on the election showed on Tuesday. With a week to go before American voters head to the polls, Republican candidate John McCain has just a 13 percent chance of capturing the White House, according to data posted by the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. This REUTERS story appeared in the TIGARD TIMES, published in Portland, Ore., as well as seven other media outlets including the Spanish portal of YAHOO NEWS. Link to article

Obama's lead grows steadily on Iowa Electronic Markets (Fox Business, Oct. 28)
Democratic candidate Barack Obama has an 87 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, an electronic market for wagering on the election showed Tuesday. With a week to go before American voters head to the polls, Republican candidate John McCain has just a 13 percent chance of capturing the White House, according to data posted by the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. The IEM, which is run as a research tool by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA business school, has shown Obama's lead growing steadily in recent weeks. Link to article

Gronbeck comments on scandals in political parties (USA Today, Oct. 28)
This USA Today article shows how scandals dog incumbents in both political parties and how lawmakers in both parties are wrestling with embarrassment and imbroglio as they seek another term in Congress. Candidates running against someone under investigation or in turmoil must be cautious in their attacks, said BRUCE GRONBECK, director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture. "You have to be careful you don't generate sympathy," Gronbeck said, noting that scandals get a lot of exposure. "If any of these opponents comes out really strongly they just haven't been paying attention to what's happening in the media world." Link to article

UI international students observe U.S. elections (Macroworld Investor, Oct. 28)
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA freshmen Yunshan Tao and Jingying Zhai arrived in the United States just in time to watch both major parties nominate their presidential candidates. Though they had been hearing about the American election in China, neither knew many details. Now they and more than 2,000 other UI international students must try to understand what graduate teaching assistant Gyorgy Toth described as "a fantastically intricate system." Most of the international students on campus seem to be observing the election process rather than actively participating -- just like him, he said. This story was originally published in THE DAILY IOWAN. Link to article

IEM forecast elections with eerie accuracy (Foreign Policy, Oct. 28)
Want to know who the next U.S. president will be? Forget the daily barrage of polls: For 20 years, an online project run out of the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has predicted the winner of presidential elections more accurately than opinion surveys. It's the stuff of pundits' dreams, but the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS (IEM) is the only legal market of its type in the United States. FOREIGN POLICY is a news site covering global politics, economics and ideas based in Washington, D.C. Link to article

Osborn comments on Palin impact (The National, Oct. 27)
What has been the impact of Sarah Palin's candidacy? "After almost two months on the campaign trail, her net impact is the greatest surprise: zero. Palin has reverted to the traditional role of the Vice-President. It is the one that Joe Biden has played for the Democrats to considerably less attention. That role is to be an attack dog. 'In the end, her impact is going to be neutral. The base loves her, but she is not going to bring many people on board for McCain who aren't there already,' said Professor TRACY OSBORN, a political scientist and expert on women in politics at the University of Iowa." The National originates in the United Arab Emirates. Link to article

Rietz explains stability on IEM (The Politico, Oct. 26)
Finance professor THOMAS RIETZ said the Iowa Electronic Markets and other prediction futures markets are less volatile than public opinion polls because heavily partisan traders tend to hang onto contracts that they shouldn't. Link to article

Lewis Beck predicts election outcome (OpEdNews, Oct. 25)
MICHAEL LEWIS BECK, who teaches political science at the University of Iowa, has factored racial basis into his voting model and thinks Obama will win the popular vote, Couzin says, but lose in the electoral college. Link to article

Battleground poll shows bad news for McCain (Washington Post, Oct. 24)
A big batch of battleground polls came out early Thursday and brought almost universally bad news for John McCain. The Republican nominee's path to the presidency is now extremely precarious and may depend on something unexpected taking control of a campaign that appears to have swung hard toward Barack Obama since the end of the debates. There were eight polls produced by the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL. Obama not only leads in all eight states by hefty margins but has improved his standing since the last time the group surveyed these states. Link to article

Poll shows McCain struggling for win (UPI, Oct. 24)
Polls in states considered key for John McCain, including the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, indicate the Republican U.S. presidential nominee will struggle to win the White House, aides acknowledge. But victory over Democratic candidate Barack Obama remains possible, McCain aides said. Link to article

State polls show Obama in the lead (U.S.News & World Report, Oct. 23)
State polls out in the last 24 hours, including the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, show Sen. Barack Obama with a significant lead in a number of Democratic-leaning battleground states. In the GOP-leaning battleground states, the situation is more confused with some polls showing Sen. John McCain holding small leads in key states such as Florida and Ohio, while others showing him trailing. Link to article

Results of Big 10 Poll show Obama in lead (AP, Oct. 23)
Results of the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, which asked voters in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota for their views on the presidential race, show Obama consistently in the lead. Link to article

Hawkeye Poll shows Obama ahead (Miami Herald, Oct. 23)
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has carved out a healthy lead across a Midwest region that was fiercely competitive a month ago, according to an eight-state BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL released Thursday. Obama led Republican John McCain by double digits in all eight states polled: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Illinois. That group includes five states that Democrats won in 2004 and three that Republicans won. It includes six of the nine closest states in '04. Link to article

Big Ten Poll: Obama up by double-digits (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Oct. 23)
Democrat Barack Obama has carved out a significant lead throughout the Midwest battleground region, according to an eight-state "BIG TEN" poll released Thursday morning. Obama leads Republican John McCain by double-digits in all eight states: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Illinois. Link to article

Poll shows 'jaw-dropping' numbers (Los Angeles Times, Oct. 23)
"Wow," Barack Obama said the other day as he gazed upon an estimated crowd of 100,000 in St. Louis waiting to hear him speak. "Wow," The Ticket said to itself today after two polling groups released results for several of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race. John McCain, as part of the feisty underdog role he has taken on, likes to zing Obama for "measuring the drapes" at the White House. If these new findings are even close to being right, Obama can start taking contracting bids for that basketball court he wants to install at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The jaw-dropping numbers come from the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, which is supervised by two University of Wisconsin political science professors.
Link to article

Poll shows bleak battleground for McCain (McClatchy, Oct. 23)
A series of new polls released Thursday, including the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, found a bleak outlook for John McCain, even in traditionally Republican states, and a potential landslide victory for Democrat Barack Obama on Nov. 4. Link to article

Hawkeye Poll: young voters paying less attention to election (UPI, Oct. 23)
A UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL indicates younger U.S. adults are paying less attention to the election than older voters. The national poll of 796 of registered voters, conducted Oct. 5-18, found 40 percent of younger voters say they are paying close attention to the election, compared to 53 percent of those age 35-54, 61 percent of those age 55-69, and 72 percent of those 70 and older. Link to article

Redlawsk identifies four types of voters (Politico, Oct. 22)
University of Iowa political science associate professor DAVID REDLAWSK has developed a model to explain how voters make decisions. "Our basic idea here is that there are different ways of making decisions, particularly voting decisions," he said. His model has four voter types: rational, intuitive, confirmative, and fast and frugal. Each category of voter uses a different decision-making process. The story originated in THE DAILY IOWAN. Link to article

Redlawsk comments on Obama strength in Iowa (Arizona Republic, Oct. 21)
The once-key battleground states of Wisconsin and Iowa are slipping further into the Democratic column as polls indicate Barack Obama building a larger lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain. In Iowa, Obama has benefited in the general election from having a good field organization going into the Iowa caucuses. "This is a state where on-the-ground organization matters a lot," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political science professor. "Early on, Obama built it and McCain didn't." Link to article

Columnist cites Hawkeye Poll (The Politico, Oct. 20)
A column about rumors that Barack Obama is Muslim cites numerous polls, including an open-ended question in a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA that found 8.4 percent volunteering that he's a Muslim. There are two ways to explain this, the columnist writes. Either everyone who was inclined to believe Obama is a Muslim settled on it sometime last year, and nobody new has been convinced. Or some share have been talked out of it, and replaced by new believers. But either way, this isn't a fast-spreading virus. It's a chronic condition -- annoying to the candidate, but ultimately, apparently, under control. Link to article

Nelson talks about market discrepancies (New York Times, Oct. 19)
The prediction market Intrade.com has been out of step with the other prediction markets, including the Iowa Electronic Markets, revealing that a single investor was manipulating the results. "The surprising thing is not that there was some manipulation, it is that it was sustained," said FORREST NELSON, who teaches at the University of Iowa. Variations of this story are appearing widely. Link to article

IEM traders favor Obama by large margin (Reuters, Oct. 15)
Traders betting on future events in the political prediction markets are overwhelmingly predicting a Barack Obama victory in the U.S. presidential election, giving the Illinois Democrat a better than 80 percent chance of winning. On the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, run as a research tool by the University of Iowa business school, traders were giving the Democrat an 82 percent chance of winning and the Republican an 18 percent chance of winning. The article appeared in several media outlets, including the BOSTON GLOBE, NEW YORK TIMES, and others. Link to article

UI study predicts Obama win (Examiner.com, Oct. 14)
Using a variety of economic, social and political indicators, several recent studies by political scientists are predicting that Barack Obama will likely become the nation's next president. MICHAEL S. LEWIS-BECK of the University of Iowa and Charles Tien of Hunter College, who factored race into their forecasting equation and predicted that the Republicans "will experience a shattering defeat." The Lewis-Beck/Tien model, which made the prediction based in part on the number of jobs created in the labor market, has only a 1 in 14 chance of being wrong, the authors said. The news Web site is based in Denver. Link to article

Redlawsk divides voters into four groups (Time, Oct. 13)
Despite polls showing that many people say they are following the presidential campaign closely, most Americans know little about politics. When faced with an important decision like picking a President, we often struggle to see through the blizzard of conflicting information. That's where shortcuts can come in. Political scientists Richard Lau at Rutgers and DAVID REDLAWSK at the University of Iowa have developed four models of how people actually pick candidates. No partisan or demographic group is predisposed to a particular model, and a voter might use different strategies for different contests. The four categories are: rational; passive; frugal; and intuitive. Link to article

Franken rallies, Coleman tanks on IEM (MinnPost.com, Oct. 13)
Democratic challenger Al Franken has moved ahead of Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS' Minnesota Senate race market, as traders now believe he has a roughly 60 percent chance of winning next month's election. Link to article

Jones comments on voting machine accuracy (Scientific American, October 2008)
A story about voting machine technology notes that various studies have reached disparate conclusions about which technologies more accurately count votes and which are hardest to hack, although voter mistakes are lower for direct recording electronic (DRE) machines. New York State asserts that lever machines are as good as other technologies, but some experts disagree. A review by California, which uses a mix of options, found none to be clearly superior. Even though lab tests have shown differences, "when you factor in real-world variables, like ease of use and proper administration by poll workers, accuracy ends up being similar" -- about one error in 10,000 votes, says DOUGLAS W. JONES, a computer science professor at the University of Iowa and an expert on voting technology. Better ballot design could also reduce mistakes. "We've been designing hard-to-use ballots since this country began, and that's not about to change," Jones quips. Link to article

Redlawsk puzzles about McCain's Iowa campaign (LA Times, Oct. 12)
The McCain campaign remains optimistic about Iowa, where polls show him trailing by double digits. The optimism puzzles some longtime political observers, like DAVID REDLAWSK, an associate professor at the University of Iowa and director of the Hawkeye Poll. "It's really surprising that at this stage of the campaign -- when the most valuable thing a candidate has is his time -- that he'd be putting the time into a state that really does look out of reach, at least by all public indicators," Redlawsk said. Link to article

IEM shows McCain sinking (IPS, Oct. 11)
Overwhelmed by crashing stock markets and what is increasingly seen by even traditional conservatives as a Faustian bargain with the extreme right-wing core of his Republican Party, Sen. John McCain's chances of winning the Nov. 4 presidential elections have fallen sharply over the past three weeks. The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, run by the College of Business at the University of Iowa, is currently rating McCain's chances of winning the White House at less than one in six, significantly worse than the better than one-to-three odds it offered as recently as Sep 29. IPS is the Italian Press Service. Link to article

Osborn comments of Palin debate performance (Al-Ahram Weekly, Oct. 9)
Before the vice presidential debate, Sarah Palin was heavily criticized for her television interview with CBS commentator Katie Couric. Palin struggled to answer questions about foreign policy, Supreme Court rulings and even which newspapers she reads. "Palin's performance helped to re-solidify her position as McCain's running mate," said assistant professor of political science TRACY OSBORN, who studies women in American politics at the University of Iowa. "When she first started on the campaign trail a couple of months ago, people were excited and loved her speech at the Republican convention. Since then, however, she's looked inexperienced and uninformed, particularly in some nationally televised interviews." Al-Ahram is published in Egypt. Link to article

Redlawsk identifies four types of voters (TIME, Oct. 9)
When faced with an important decision like picking a president, we often struggle to see through the blizzard of conflicting information. That's where shortcuts can come in. Political scientists Richard Lau at Rutgers and DAVID REDLAWSK at the University of Iowa have developed four models of how people actually pick candidates: the rational voter who weighs the positives and negatives, the passive voter who votes with their party and impressions of candidates, the frugal voter who focuses on a handful of key issues, and the intuitive voter who seeks only enough information to reach a decision. Link to article

Jones: voting machines may not be properly calibrated (Wired Blog, Oct. 7)
Problems with ballot-reading machines in a Florida primary recount revealed grave voting problems just one month before the presidential election. DOUGLAS JONES, a professor of computer science at the University of Iowa who has consulted with a number of states on voting machine issues, said the problem with the machines is likely inconsistent calibration among machines. Jones blamed the federal voting system standards by which voting systems are tested and certified. He says the federal standards don't set a threshold for what should be an acceptable number of scanning mistakes and calibration decisions are thus left to the companies that make them. Link to article

Berg discusses Iowa Electronic Markets (Congressional Quarterly, Oct. 3)
JOYCE BERG, professor of accounting and director of the Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa, explains the mechanics of the IEM and how it operates as a political prediction market. Link to video

IEM cited in article on prediction markets (Washington Post, Oct. 2)
Prediction markets have been around in one form or another for decades. Throughout the 2008 presidential campaign, Intrade has generated nearly $50 million worth of futures contracts. Betfair, a market based in the United Kingdom also attracts millions of dollars in bets. Its Web site predicts nearly $70 million will be invested on the U.S. presidential election. U.S. law prevents predictive trading nationwide, with the exception of the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, which began as an academic research tool and today caps investments at $500. Link to article

Redlawsk comments on Obama poll lead (Associated Press, Oct. 1)
Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers. Democrats hope Obama is starting to build a lasting lead. "We have a light optimism," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a delegate to the Democratic National Convention who teaches political science at the University of Iowa. "We've already learned in the last several weeks that we can be whipsawed back very, very quickly." The story was published on the Web sites of the WASHINGTON POST, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS, SAN MATEO (CALIF.) DAILY JOURNAL, CHINA ECONOMIC NEWS, BALTIMORE SUN, LOS ANGELES DAILY NEWS, SEATTLE TIMES, DETROIT NEWS and numerous other news sites. Link to article

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