UI in the National Political News

September 2008

IEM trading is cited (Fort Wayne Journal-Gazette, Sept. 28)
Traders in the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA'S electronic-futures market Thursday bet Barack Obama had a 63 percent chance of winning the popular vote in November's presidential election. Link to article

Lewis-Beck predicts Obama win (Capital Times, Sept. 24)
MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK, a University of Iowa political scientist, has been putting together forecast models to predict election results since the early 1980s. His Jobs Model Forecast takes into account the president's popularity, current figures on economic growth and job creation, and the built-in incumbency advantage. And while the numbers are fluid, Lewis-Beck's forecast predicts Barack Obama should win the presidency in a landslide by garnering about 56.6 percent of the two-party popular vote, compared to 43.4 percent for McCain, the Republican nominee. Yet with less than six weeks to go before the Nov. 4 election, most national polls show Democratic nominee Barack Obama holding a tenuous lead over John McCain, and Lewis-Beck says there is only one explanation. "There is a significant group of people who just won't vote for a black candidate. Period," he said. The newspaper is published in Madison, Wis. Link to article

Student protestors appear at campaign event (CNN.com, Sept. 18)
At a campaign event Thursday in Cedar Rapids, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin spoke to crowds before Sen. John McCain took the stage. About five minutes into Palin's speech, four female students from the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA Feminist Majority and the University of Iowa Anti-war Alliance held up a cloth banner and began a loud anti-war chant in the middle of the crowd. Other members of the audience shouted them down with chants of "USA! USA!" and "Sarah! Sarah!" It was several minutes before the women were escorted from the venue. A FOX NEWS story also noted the protest, as well as a blog in the WALL STREET JOURNAL. Link to article

Inaugural Big Ten Battleground Poll shows tight race (WISN-TV, Sept. 18)
A new poll of voters in the eight states that have Big Ten universities shows Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain in an extraordinarily tight race for the presidency. The first Big Ten Battleground Poll shows the candidates are in a statistical tie in seven of the states -- Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana and Pennsylvania. The UNIVERSITY OF IOWA was among the universities that contributed to the poll. The TV station is based in Wisconsin. The story appeared on the Web sites of several other TV stations, and was cited in a WALL STREET JOURNAL blog. Link to article

Columnist cites the IEM (New York Times, Sept. 18)
Columnist Justin Wolfers, in an analysis of current polls, cites the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS with a link to the UI site. Link to article

IEM standings similar to British market's (Wall Street Journal, Sept. 18)
In the British prediction market Betfair, which takes large real-money bets but will not accept trades from U.S. customers, the Democrats remain a robust favorite, with a 58 percent chance of winning the White House compared with the Republicans' 42 percent chance. The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS also rate the Democrats as the favorites by a roughly similar margin. Link to article

Peterson: satirists add to election conversation (Arkansas Traveler, Sept. 17)
An editorial asserts that if comedians can count on millions of viewers to tune in to shows like "Saturday Night Live," we can count on the idea that their satirical sketches affect the public perception of candidates. The authors agree with RUSSELL L. PETERSON, an American studies professor at the University of Iowa, who, in The Washington Post, said true satirists are genuine critics who contribute in a healthy way to the national election conversation. Link to article

Gronbeck comments on media protests (Chicago Tribune, Sept. 17)
Barack Obama's presidential campaign is increasingly using a database of millions of supporters to beat back media messages it does not like, calling on supporters to flood radio and television stations when those opposed to him run anti-Obama ads or appear on talk shows. It recently orchestrated a massive stream of complaints on the phone lines WGN-AM in Chicago when the radio station hosted author David Freddoso, who has written a controversial book about the Illinois Democrat. BRUCE GRONBECK, a University of Iowa professor who studies political communications, said protests against television and radio stations are fair game in a presidential campaign. "The media are players in the process," he said. "If they are a player, the parties are certainly going to try to hold them accountable." Link to article

Redlawsk comments on Obama campaign fundraising (Business Day, Sept. 16)
Presidential candidate Barack Obama raised more than $66 million in August for his campaign. John McCain raised $50 million last month. The haul may reassure some Democrats who have been worried that donations for Obama were starting to fall off. "There is no question that this will make some nervous Democrats more comfortable," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "There has been some concern that the Obama campaign would struggle to raise enough money in the end after abandoning public financing. This should put those questions to rest." Business Day is published in New Zealand. Link to article

Covington comments on second Iowa campaign (Boston Globe, Sept. 15)
As the presidential candidates return to battleground states, Barack Obama's lead looks solid in Iowa. "He'd have to dramatically falter to jeopardize Iowa," said CARY COVINGTON, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. Link to article

Redlawsk comments on Obama fundraising (Bloomberg/Yahoo, Sept. 15)
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama raised more than $66 million in August for his campaign against Republican John McCain, a one-month record. "There is no question that this will make some nervous Democrats more comfortable," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "There has been some concern that the Obama campaign would be struggling to raise enough money in the end after abandoning public financing. This should put those questions to rest." Link to article

Jones explains voting machines (Scientific American, Sept. 15)
Whenever national elections occur, debates arise over which voting technology is most accurate and least susceptible to tampering. "When you factor in real-world variables, like ease of use and proper administration by poll workers, accuracy ends up being similar" -- about one error in 10,000 votes, says DOUGLAS W. JONES, a computer science professor at the University of Iowa and an expert on voting technology. Better ballot design could also reduce mistakes. "We've been designing hard-to-use ballots since this country began, and that's not about to change," Jones quips. Link to article

IEM remains unchanged (Bloomberg, Sept. 13)
The race between John McCain and Barack Obama, for all the talk of a post-convention Republican surge and Democratic jitters, remains pretty much where it was a month ago and mirrors the presidential contest four years ago. "At the granddaddy of political futures markets, the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets, odds of the Democratic candidate winning the popular vote are at 54 percent. The Iowa market tends to be less volatile, said THOMAS RIETZ, a research fellow in the Department of Finance at the university's business school." Link to article

IEM cited as better predictor of wins than Gallup polls (Mother Jones, Sept. 11)
Emory political science professor Alan Abramowitz seems to have a mathematical election model that works. Abramowitz's system has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points for every presidential election since 1988. The model isn't perfect, of course, but it does factor in a wide range of variables such as GDP, a party's time in office, and recent polls. If you're skeptical of models, check out the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS trading index for the presidential election. For decades, it's been a much better predictor of presidential wins than Gallup polls. Link to article

Accuracy of Iowa Electronic Markets noted (Aardvark Daily, Sept. 11)
A column describes iPredict, a new New Zealand futures market that allows people to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to predicting trends or events in business and politics. The new site notes the accuracy of the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA'S version in predicting outcomes of U.S. presidential races. AARDVARK DAILY is an online news and commentary publication in New Zealand. Link to article

Obama still ahead on Iowa Electronic Markets (Minnesota Public Radio, Sept. 10)
A money management column called "My Two Cents" describes the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, online futures markets that allow people to invest up to $500 on the election's outcome. The markets recently indicated Obama has a 57 percent chance of winning the White House come November, down from a recent peak of 63 percent. Link to article

Jones comments on Palm Beach voting woes (St. Petersburg Times, Sept. 8)
Palm Beach County is back in the national spotlight for its voting woes, involving missing ballots and big changes in recount totals. DOUG JONES, a computer science professor at the University of Iowa who has reviewed problem elections throughout the country, said a small variation in the results of a recount is not unusual. "But 3 percent?" he said. "That's bad." Link to article

Hagle comments on GOP ethanol plank (Colorado Independent, Sept. 6)
The platform of the Republican Party calls for the end of the federal government's ethanol mandate, a reversal from the party's 2004 platform. TIM HAGLE, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and faculty advisor to the school's College Republicans, said the content of the platforms from either party haven't been all that important for quite awhile. "More often than not such planks are used to try to create a 'gotcha' moment along the lines of, 'Candidate So-and-so, your party has plank X, but you've said Y on the issue. How do you reconcile that difference?' On the whole, the process of creating the party platform is a good exercise in grassroots democracy, but it's certainly not critical to a candidate." Link to article

UI poll is cited (Palm Beach Post, Sept. 6)
More states are "in play" in this presidential election. An August poll by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA gave Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama a solid 7-point lead in Iowa. Link to article

Gronbeck comments on Palin effect (Wall Street Journal, Sept. 6)
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, whom Sen. McCain picked as his running mate a week ago, has changed the calculus of the campaign. She is so popular that the campaign may have its work cut out making sure Sen. McCain doesn't get upstaged. "She certainly is overshadowing the campaign," said BRUCE GRONBECK, director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture. He added that even after McCain delivered his widely watched nomination-acceptance speech on Thursday, "I don't think he managed to fully pull the attention back to him." Link to article

Obama's lead in Iowa has grown since latest Hawkeye Poll (CNN, Sept. 4)
In a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Wednesday afternoon, 55 percent of Iowa registered voters who were questioned said Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is their choice for president, with 40 percent backing Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. That's more than double the lead Obama had in a UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll taken early last month. Link to article

Studies: markets better election predictor (New York Daily News, Sept. 2)
Political betting on financial markets outperforms polling as an elections predictor, according to a University of North Carolina study and figures from the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. Only twice in the century through 2004 -- the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore -- did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote. The story originally appeared on the BLOOMBERG news wire. Link to article

IEM predicts vote share better than polls (WKYT-TV, Sept. 2)
In the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, a low-stakes trading market at the University of Iowa, participants can wager from $5 to $500 in winner-take-all futures markets in everything from political races to box office receipts. In 75 percent of the cases, the Iowa market prices predict the actual vote share of the election better than polls. The TV station is based in Lexington, Ky. Link to article

UI poll shows Obama leading in Iowa (Washington Post, Sept. 1)
A story about the Midwest's status in this year's presidential election notes that a recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA poll gives Obama a 5-point edge among registered voters in the state, with his supporters significantly more apt to say they are strongly behind their candidate. Bush's approval rating stands at just 31 percent in the survey, with 80 percent of Iowa voters saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. Link to article

UI student leads protests at Republican National Convention (Slate, Sept. 1)
A story about the arrest of protestors at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul notes that one of the protest leaders, David Goodner, is a student at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Link to article