News and Events

UI Election News

IEM within less than half percentage point in presidential race prediction (11/24/08)
Democratic contract never trailed on IEM's Winner Take All prediction market (11/5/08)
UI law professor says Obama election moves us closer to racial equality (11/5/08)
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll examines attributes of early voters (11/3/08)
IEM traders give edge to Obama, Democrats, while Franken price dips (10/30/08)
Students urge students to vote smart with UIVote.net (10/29/08)

Election News Archive

Hawkeye Poll

Hawkeye Poll: slight majority of Americans against healthcare reform (11/18/09)
Poll top-line data (11/18/09)
UI political scientists examine support for gay marriage in Iowa (11/25/08)
Poll topline data (11/25/08)
Student exit poll examines views on financial crisis, drinking, candidates (11/7/08)
Poll top-line data (11/7/08)
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll examines attributes of early voters (11/3/08)
Hawkeye Poll: younger voters could swing election but remain less engaged (10/21/08)
Poll top-line data (10/21/08)
Voters enthralled with election, but still unsure about Obama's faith (10/14/08)
Poll top-line data (10/14/08)

Hawkeye Poll Archive

UI in the National News

Link to National News archive

Redlawsk comments on youth turnout (Politico, Nov. 4)
Going against the stereotype of the apathetic college kid, youth have been more involved in this election than any in recent memory -- and experts think they will show up at the polls. Experts attribute the jump in interest to an increase in digital-based communication from campaigns, Democratic nominee Barack Obama's appeal to the generation, and increased outreach from the candidates. Obama "specifically reached out to younger voters," said University of Iowa professor DAVID REDLAWSK. "The evidence is that any group of voters, if they're targeted, tends to respond."
Link to article

Colleges report voter turnout  (Politico, Nov. 4)
On Election Day, campuses around the country were reporting a huge voter turnout and, for the moment, few problems or instances of voter intimidation. Early voting in Iowa City smashed past records with 43 percent of Johnson County's registered voters having voted by Monday, compared with 37 percent in 2004, according to the Daily Iowan, the student newspaper of the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Today's anticipated large turnout was expected to cause long lines at some polling places there, since Iowa -- along with Wisconsin and Minnesota -- allows same-day registration.
Link to article

IEM traders bullish on Obama (Agence France Presse, Nov. 3)
Wall Street may be a mess, but in the final hours before Tuesday's U.S. election one share just keeps rising: Barack Obama. The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS predict Obama 91.5 percent likely to get in and McCain 8.6 percent. The markets, which are run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA as a research project, found in a study that it had beaten the polls 74 percent of the time over 20 years. This story also appeared on the Web site of THE PENINSULA (Qatar), ABC-TV (Australia), YAHOO! CANADA, and numerous other news organizations.Link to article
Stories about the IEM also appeared on the Web sites of the STRAITS TIMES of Malaysia and MSNBC.com:

Jones discusses troubled electronic voting machines (Nature, November 2008)
DOUGLAS JONES, computer science professor at the University of Iowa, discusses the impact on voting of the many problems affecting electronic voting machines. Link to article

Columnist cites UI poll (Kansas City Star, Nov. 3)
Columnist Bill Tammeus writes, "It's impossible to understand American politics -- including our national election this Tuesday -- without understanding the influence of religion... A recent UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL said that more than 8 percent of registered American voters think Sen. Barack Obama is a Muslim. Stunning, eh? Is this an understandable case of mistaken identity? No. It's a case of willfully deceitful propaganda having an effect." Link to article

Jones talks about voting scandals (DVICE.com, Nov. 3)
DOUGLAS JONES, voting technology expert at the University of Iowa, says most voting scandals involve ballot design, not technology flaws. From Florida's butterfly ballot in 2000 to this election's straight-ticket issues in Texas, design flaws cause more mis-votes than anything directly related to the machines themselves. The ideal voting machine would use touchscreen technology -- it can present selections more clearly and break down contests into separate screens that voters can scroll through, ensuring that you've made a choice before moving to the next screen. DVICE is a Web site of the SciFi Channel. Link to article

IEM predictions cited (Wall Street Journal MarketWatch, Nov. 2)
If you want to pooh-pooh the pundits and polls and get the real scoop on the likely outcome of Tuesday's presidential election, it's worth taking a look at the political-futures markets. The Iowa Electronic Markets, which opened in 1988, boasts a prediction rate of "closer than the polls 75 percent of the time," said JOYCE BERG, director of IEM and a professor of accounting at the University of Iowa. Link to article

IEM odds are cited (North Jersey Record, Nov. 1)
Columnist Joseph Ax writes that a McCain victory will make winners of those who go against the odds in prediction markets. "Some experts believe that online exchanges, like InTrade.com or the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS at the University of Iowa, are the most accurate predictors of what will happen on Election Day, thanks to the power of free markets." A $1.67 investment in the IEM would pay $10 if McCain won. The column is appearing widely. Link to article

IEM predicts Obama victory (Bloomberg, Oct. 31)
The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, operated by the University of Iowa, has traded political futures for the last 20 years for education and research. Traders on that exchange give the Democratic candidate an 86 percent chance of victory next week in the "winner take all" market. Link to article

Redlawsk comments on challenges of polling (NBC Nightly News, Oct. 30)
University of Iowa Political Scientist DAVID REDLAWSK is featured in a piece about the challenges of polling -- issues such as whether people are giving honest answers or trying to skew results, and lack of time and interest to participate in polls. The story notes that many polls do not include calls to cell phones, even though upwards of 17 percent of Americans, especially the young, have dropped their landlines. Redlawsk points out that low-income individuals may also be underrepresented in such polls because people without access to credit might rely on pay-as-you-go cell phones. Link to article

Osborn comments on Palin's future in politics (Chicago Tribune, Oct. 30)
TRACY OSBORN, who studies women in politics at the University of Iowa, is quoted about Sarah Palin's future in politics. "In many ways her future is about the future of the party itself," Osborn said. "Do they highlight limited government? Do they strengthen the social conservatism? It could end up so many different ways." If Palin seeks a presidential bid in 2012, Osborn said she should use the next four years to become more familiar with national issues. "She needs to bulk up on policy," Osborn said. The story also appeared in the ARIZONA REPUBLIC. Link to article

IEM puts money on Obama (Tigard Times, Oct. 29)
Democratic candidate Barack Obama has an 87 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, an electronic market for wagering on the election showed on Tuesday. With a week to go before American voters head to the polls, Republican candidate John McCain has just a 13 percent chance of capturing the White House, according to data posted by the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. This REUTERS story appeared in the TIGARD TIMES, published in Portland, Ore., as well as seven other media outlets including the Spanish portal of YAHOO NEWS. Link to article

Obama's lead grows steadily on Iowa Electronic Markets (Fox Business, Oct. 28)
Democratic candidate Barack Obama has an 87 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, an electronic market for wagering on the election showed Tuesday. With a week to go before American voters head to the polls, Republican candidate John McCain has just a 13 percent chance of capturing the White House, according to data posted by the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. The IEM, which is run as a research tool by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA business school, has shown Obama's lead growing steadily in recent weeks. Link to article

Gronbeck comments on scandals in political parties (USA Today, Oct. 28)
This USA Today article shows how scandals dog incumbents in both political parties and how lawmakers in both parties are wrestling with embarrassment and imbroglio as they seek another term in Congress. Candidates running against someone under investigation or in turmoil must be cautious in their attacks, said BRUCE GRONBECK, director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture. "You have to be careful you don't generate sympathy," Gronbeck said, noting that scandals get a lot of exposure. "If any of these opponents comes out really strongly they just haven't been paying attention to what's happening in the media world." Link to article

UI international students observe U.S. elections (Macroworld Investor, Oct. 28)
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA freshmen Yunshan Tao and Jingying Zhai arrived in the United States just in time to watch both major parties nominate their presidential candidates. Though they had been hearing about the American election in China, neither knew many details. Now they and more than 2,000 other UI international students must try to understand what graduate teaching assistant Gyorgy Toth described as "a fantastically intricate system." Most of the international students on campus seem to be observing the election process rather than actively participating -- just like him, he said. This story was originally published in THE DAILY IOWAN. Link to article

IEM forecast elections with eerie accuracy (Foreign Policy, Oct. 28)
Want to know who the next U.S. president will be? Forget the daily barrage of polls: For 20 years, an online project run out of the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has predicted the winner of presidential elections more accurately than opinion surveys. It's the stuff of pundits' dreams, but the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS (IEM) is the only legal market of its type in the United States. FOREIGN POLICY is a news site covering global politics, economics and ideas based in Washington, D.C. Link to article

Osborn comments on Palin impact (The National, Oct. 27)
What has been the impact of Sarah Palin's candidacy? "After almost two months on the campaign trail, her net impact is the greatest surprise: zero. Palin has reverted to the traditional role of the Vice-President. It is the one that Joe Biden has played for the Democrats to considerably less attention. That role is to be an attack dog. 'In the end, her impact is going to be neutral. The base loves her, but she is not going to bring many people on board for McCain who aren't there already,' said Professor TRACY OSBORN, a political scientist and expert on women in politics at the University of Iowa." The National originates in the United Arab Emirates. Link to article

Rietz explains stability on IEM (The Politico, Oct. 26)
Finance professor THOMAS RIETZ said the Iowa Electronic Markets and other prediction futures markets are less volatile than public opinion polls because heavily partisan traders tend to hang onto contracts that they shouldn't. Link to article

Lewis Beck predicts election outcome (OpEdNews, Oct. 25)
MICHAEL LEWIS BECK, who teaches political science at the University of Iowa, has factored racial basis into his voting model and thinks Obama will win the popular vote, Couzin says, but lose in the electoral college. Link to article

Battleground poll shows bad news for McCain (Washington Post, Oct. 24)
A big batch of battleground polls came out early Thursday and brought almost universally bad news for John McCain. The Republican nominee's path to the presidency is now extremely precarious and may depend on something unexpected taking control of a campaign that appears to have swung hard toward Barack Obama since the end of the debates. There were eight polls produced by the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL. Obama not only leads in all eight states by hefty margins but has improved his standing since the last time the group surveyed these states. Link to article

Poll shows McCain struggling for win (UPI, Oct. 24)
Polls in states considered key for John McCain, including the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, indicate the Republican U.S. presidential nominee will struggle to win the White House, aides acknowledge. But victory over Democratic candidate Barack Obama remains possible, McCain aides said. Link to article

State polls show Obama in the lead (U.S.News & World Report, Oct. 23)
State polls out in the last 24 hours, including the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, show Sen. Barack Obama with a significant lead in a number of Democratic-leaning battleground states. In the GOP-leaning battleground states, the situation is more confused with some polls showing Sen. John McCain holding small leads in key states such as Florida and Ohio, while others showing him trailing. Link to article

Results of Big 10 Poll show Obama in lead (AP, Oct. 23)
Results of the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, which asked voters in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota for their views on the presidential race, show Obama consistently in the lead. Link to article

Hawkeye Poll shows Obama ahead (Miami Herald, Oct. 23)
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has carved out a healthy lead across a Midwest region that was fiercely competitive a month ago, according to an eight-state BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL released Thursday. Obama led Republican John McCain by double digits in all eight states polled: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Illinois. That group includes five states that Democrats won in 2004 and three that Republicans won. It includes six of the nine closest states in '04. Link to article

Big Ten Poll: Obama up by double-digits (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Oct. 23)
Democrat Barack Obama has carved out a significant lead throughout the Midwest battleground region, according to an eight-state "BIG TEN" poll released Thursday morning. Obama leads Republican John McCain by double-digits in all eight states: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Illinois. Link to article

Poll shows 'jaw-dropping' numbers (Los Angeles Times, Oct. 23)
"Wow," Barack Obama said the other day as he gazed upon an estimated crowd of 100,000 in St. Louis waiting to hear him speak. "Wow," The Ticket said to itself today after two polling groups released results for several of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race. John McCain, as part of the feisty underdog role he has taken on, likes to zing Obama for "measuring the drapes" at the White House. If these new findings are even close to being right, Obama can start taking contracting bids for that basketball court he wants to install at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The jaw-dropping numbers come from the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, which is supervised by two University of Wisconsin political science professors.
Link to article

Poll shows bleak battleground for McCain (McClatchy, Oct. 23)
A series of new polls released Thursday, including the BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL, found a bleak outlook for John McCain, even in traditionally Republican states, and a potential landslide victory for Democrat Barack Obama on Nov. 4. Link to article

Hawkeye Poll: young voters paying less attention to election (UPI, Oct. 23)
A UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HAWKEYE POLL indicates younger U.S. adults are paying less attention to the election than older voters. The national poll of 796 of registered voters, conducted Oct. 5-18, found 40 percent of younger voters say they are paying close attention to the election, compared to 53 percent of those age 35-54, 61 percent of those age 55-69, and 72 percent of those 70 and older. Link to article

Redlawsk identifies four types of voters (Politico, Oct. 22)
University of Iowa political science associate professor DAVID REDLAWSK has developed a model to explain how voters make decisions. "Our basic idea here is that there are different ways of making decisions, particularly voting decisions," he said. His model has four voter types: rational, intuitive, confirmative, and fast and frugal. Each category of voter uses a different decision-making process. The story originated in THE DAILY IOWAN. Link to article

Redlawsk comments on Obama strength in Iowa (Arizona Republic, Oct. 21)
The once-key battleground states of Wisconsin and Iowa are slipping further into the Democratic column as polls indicate Barack Obama building a larger lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain. In Iowa, Obama has benefited in the general election from having a good field organization going into the Iowa caucuses. "This is a state where on-the-ground organization matters a lot," said DAVID REDLAWSK, a University of Iowa political science professor. "Early on, Obama built it and McCain didn't." Link to article

More UI in the National News