News and Events

UI Election News

Clinton contract takes a beating on Iowa Electronic Markets (5/7/08)
IEM investors still believe Obama will be Democratic nominee (4/21/08)
Iowa researcher works to make voting easier, fairer, in wake of new law (4/10/08)
McCain closing gap with Democrats on IEM presidential market (3/31/08)
Professor: political punch lines are problematic (3/13/08)

Election News Archive

Hawkeye Poll

January 2008
UI Hawkeye Poll: Iowans had fun at their caucuses (1/25/08)
Poll top-line data (PDF) (1/25/08)

Hawkeye Poll Archive

UI in the National News

Link to National News archive

Redlawsk: Pressure might be on Clinton to drop out (Bloomberg, May 6)
In the ongoing campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, the economy, especially energy costs, has moved front and center as the two candidates focused their messages for today's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. Both candidates need at least one victory. For Clinton "the pressure to drop out will be immense if she loses both of these states," DAVID REDLAWSK, a political science professor at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, said. Link to article

IEM one of two regulated prediction markets (Globeinvestor.com, May 2)
Only two U.S. prediction markets are officially regulated by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) -- the IOWA ELECTRONICS MARKET (IEM) at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, which specializes in politics, and HedgeStreet, a division of Britain's IG Group Holdings, which offers a wide assortment of contracts. However, dozens of other exchanges have popped up around the world to cash in on the hype. The Hollywood Stock Exchange uses play money and focuses on entertainment topics such as movie box office receipts. GLOBEINVESTOR.COM is the online presence of THE GLOBE AND MAIL, based in Toronto, Canada. Link to article

Berg: IEM used for research, teaching purposes (AOL Money, May 2)
The rising popularity of markets where guesses are wagered on the outcome of everything from presidential elections to celebrity marriages has led to a situation that, well, many had predicted. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday said it is considering whether these markets should be regulated, and how. In the United States, the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by the University of Iowa business school, is one of the better-known markets in operation. It has about 1,000 traders at any given time who can invest up to $500 to trade on a variety of contracts, including the outcome of the presidential elections. In 1993, the commission granted an exemption to IEM, which is primarily used for research and teaching purposes, said the market's director, JOYCE BERG, who is also an accounting professor. This AP story appeared in seven other media outlets. Link to article

Peterson discusses late night comedy, politics (Washington Post, April 28)
University of Iowa professor RUSSELL PETERSON, author of "Strange Bedfellows: How Late-Night Comedy Turns Democracy Into a Joke," published by Rutgers University Press, discusses his new book and explores "Is Late Night Comedy Hurting Democracy?" in a Washington Post political podcast. Link to article

Columnist cites Iowa Electronic Markets (Congressional Quarterly, April 30)
A column about whether Sen. Hillary Clinton will leave the Democratic primary contest notes that online electronic markets, such as Intrade and the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, estimate roughly 5 to 1 in favor of Obama over Clinton, but slightly below the almost 6 to 1 spread a couple of months ago. Link to article

IEM says Clinton's chances are slim (New York Post, April 28)
Despite Hillary Clinton's win in Pennsylvania, the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS at the University of Iowa College of Business rate her chances as slim. Link to article

IEM cited in column (Wall Street Journal, April 28)
Columnist L. Gordon Crovitz cites the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS at the UI while discussing election odds for 2008. Link to article

Lewis-Beck's political prediction model noted (Washington Post, April 25)
In this article about the mathematics behind the delegate and superdelegate numbers needed to earn the Democratic presidential nomination, it's said that observers agree that the math is most definitely not in Sen. Hillary Clinton's favor. But everyone watches the race because it's still a race, because politics doesn't always obey the predictions. Back in 2000, a whole lot of political scientists used models to predict who would win the presidential election, and a whole lot of them picked a guy who went on to win the Nobel Prize in Not-My-Presidency. That was the year that "everything went up in flames," says the University of Iowa's MICHAEL S. LEWIS-BECK, who had Al Gore winning with 56.9 percent of the vote. Link to article

More UI in the National News