Spatial Filtering: Significance of Rates Computed


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Introduction

"Confidence Intervals. A practical compromise is to estimate the variance pointwise and construct 2 standard error bars around the estimate. . . Such an interval is not a confidence interval for the unknown density function but rather a confidence interval for the nonparametric estimate." (Scott, 1992, p. 259).


The Geographic Reference Distribution

One of the recent developments in small-area studies is the computation of geographical reference distributions which permit the evaluation of local measures of disease incidence as well as the relationship of disease incidences to socio-economic factors as well as age and sex. The reference distribution shows how the typical pattern of the measured disease rate in a given local situation might vary if it is consistent with a given hypothesis. For example, it is common to hypothesize that the likelihood of a person having a disease is given by the proportion of individuals in their age and sex group who, in the larger region, have the disease. These reference distributions are usually computed using Monte Carlo simulation methods, although, if the hypothesis is simple, they sometimes can be computed analytically. An example is where the expectation of a disease is a constant ratio of the population, in which case the binomial distribution for the given sample size, describes the distribution of expected values.

The value of the geographical reference distribution is that the typical patterns of disease rates at any location will reflect the particular age and sex distribution in that location. If the sample patterns are measured at adjacent locations and share simulated observations in common, the reference distribution will also, similarly, share observations.

Test Graph Method: a method, devised by Silverman (1978), to illustrate how density changes with window width for any given sample size when a probability density function is estimated using the kernel method from independent identically distributed simulated observations. There is subjectivity in the analysis of test graphs--which are contour plots for the two-dimensional case. Silverman concludes (p. 7) that "it may not be a very good idea to use the test graph alone for choosing the window width for multivariate data; however, the method may be very useful for checking that a chosen window width is sensible."


The Test Graph Method

due to Silverman (..88)

The method requires the consideration of 'test surfaces' giving plots of ....

p. 89 Nearly all package programs for finding contour diagrams and perspective views of functions require, as input, an array giving the value of the function at each point of a regular grid. Computation time is reduced if, from each grid point, the events are stored in order of their distances from each grid point.

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