In
the opening article in this issue, Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal bring the
influential analysis of voting in the U.S. Congress that they completed 12 years
ago up-to-date. The authors add six Congresses to the ninety-nine which they
originally covered. They find that voting in both houses increasingly exhibits a
single left-right ideological dimension. A single dimension can capture voting
in the contemporary Congress because race-related issues that formerly
introduced a second dimension into voting have become issues of income
redistribution. By carrying their analysis through the 105th Congress that sat
from 1996 to 1998, Poole and Rosenthal conclude that the United States has a
“a polarized, unidimensional Congress” although in cross-national
perspective it seems to lack cohesive parties. The authors explain that parties
in the U.S. Congress can be seen as “spatially adjacent ideological
coalitions” which do not require organized party discipline to hold together.
As they had done in their original analysis, they set their finding into its
historical context. They see no new patterns developing in the 1990s. Poole and
Rosenthal go on to compare voting in Congress with voting in the UN General
Assembly, the European Parliament, and four other European parliaments. They
conclude that voting even in multiparty parliaments can be interpreted by a one-
or two-dimensional spatial model. The trend toward a clear, though not severe
polarization, evident in congressional voting during the last generation,
appears to stand in the way of the bipartisanship that leaders of both parties
advocated after the close outcome of the election of 2000.
We know that candidates with previous political experience, for example, in a
state legislature, have strong advantages as candidates in U.S. Congressional
elections, but Charles S. Bullock, Ronald Gaddie, and Anders Ferrington test the
limits of that advantage. They investigate all open elections to the U.S. House
of Representatives in which a second-ballot run-off took place in the primary
election because of the requirement, common in southern states, that a candidate
needs a majority on the first ballot to win a party’s nomination. In the 87
such House of Representative elections between 1982 and 1994, the authors find
that primary run-offs change the value of experience, presumably because voters
discount previous experience once a run-off primary has taken place.
Inexperienced candidates who come in first on the initial ballot are likely to
win nomination even against more experienced opponents.
Do interest groups dominate U.S. trade policy? Michael Bailey demonstrates that
unorganized, diffuse interests also exert influence. He examines the influence
of skilled labor—college-educated workers in service, government, education
and manufacturing—by an analysis of House and Senate votes on trade
legislation between 1983 and 1994. With a random effects statistical model that
takes a wide range of variables into account, Bailey shows that representatives
from districts with skilled work forces were consistently, significantly, and
substantially more liberal on trade policy than members from districts without
such workforces. Members presumably respond to such unorganized constituency
influences in anticipation of their reactions.
Daniel Lapinski investigates the effects that members of Congress can have on
their constituents’ knowledge of their positions. He focuses on two important
congressional votes in the U.S. in the early 1990s— the resolution to
authorize the use of force in the Persian Gulf and the 1993 budget
reconciliation act that raised taxes. Using data from the U.S. National Election
Studies to measure constituents’ knowledge, and the content of members’
newsletters as a measure of how members publicized their votes, Lapinski shows
that members can significantly affect how their constituents view them. However,
the strength of the effect varies with the partisan cues on the issues and the
congruence between district boundaries and TV media markets.
The propensity of members to speak on the floor of the U.S. House of
Representatives using the unconstrained procedure permitting one-minute speeches
at the beginning of each day’s session has been the subject of previous
research. Jonathan S. Morris supplements this research by looking at the nearly
5,000 such speeches given in the 104th Congress in which the Republican Party
held a majority for the first time in 40 years. He has new findings on the use
of this procedure to give partisan speeches. The most ideologically intense
members, and members of the Democratic party, used “one minutes” for
partisan purposes most frequently, and members with the longest tenure
used them least. Contrary to expectations, members facing reelection used
them less than average.
In articles published two years ago in this Quarterly’s Comparative
Legislative Research Series, John Hibbing (1999) and Gary Moncrief (1999)
discussed the key issues and research questions guiding the study of legislative
careers. E. Lee Bernick presents new research on this subject by investigating
the extent to which career anchor theory, developed originally by industrial
psychologists and career development specialists, provides insight and guidance
in the study of legislative careers. Using data derived from a 1995 survey of
North Carolina legislators, Bernick identifies three possible anchors for those
developing a legislative career: the desire for power and influence; the desire
to serve a cause or a community; and the desire to become competent in a
specialty. He finds these anchors distinctive to the legislative career and
proceeds to show that they shape legislators’ career orientations. Bernick
demonstrates that these
orientations can explain their legislative behavior. His initial study
encourages the use of this concept for further research on the sources and
consequences of legislative careers.
The final article in this issue offers a broad, comparative study of the
influence of procedures for setting the agenda upon the decisions of
parliaments. Herbert Döring describes the varying agenda setting prerogatives
of governments in 17 European parliaments, the relative autonomy of committees
in their legislative processes, and the rules governing the parliamentary stages
in the budget process. He summarizes the evidence that restrictive rules in the
budgeting procedure reduce budget deficits. Döring goes on to show that
government control over the lawmaking agenda results in the passage of fewer,
though more controversial bills, presumably because the time saved by the
reduction in the number of bills is used to enact relatively more
time-consuming, controversial ones. Finally, Döring asks whether detailed
coalition agreements between parties entering the cabinet might provide a
substitute for the constraints available to some governments by their control
over the parliamentary agenda. He finds initial evidence to support that
hypothesis. Döring’s analysis shows that a surprising variety exists in the
procedures for setting the agenda and for the adoption of budgets among the
major parliamentary systems of Western Europe. His work suggests that this
variety provides interesting tests of the relationship between procedures and
outcomes.