The first three articles in this issue of
the Quarterly—on divided government in Germany, on the quality of debate in the pre-civil war Congress, and on the electoral
connection between legislators and their constituents in
Ukraine—have in common that they explore aspects of the conventional wisdom about
legislatures in three very different settings. Does divided government produce
stalemate in the legislative process? Was there a “golden age” of
legislatures in the 19th century? Are members of legislatures inevitably
motivated by the desire for reelection?
Although the consequence of divided government has been the subject of extensive
research on executive-legislative relations in the United States, divided government is by no means a specifically
U.S. phenomenon. Taking constitutional differences into account, it occurs in many
political systems. Philip Manow and Simone Burkhart investigate its
manifestation in
Germany, where divided government can occur as a confrontation between the two houses
of the national parliament, the Bundestag, which represents the national
electorate, and the Bundesrat, which represents the state governments. Between
1970 and 2005, the governing coalition in the Bundestag confronted an opposition
coalition in the Bundesrat three-quarters of the time. With data on 1,935 bills
introduced in the Bundestag between 1976 and 2002, the authors examine the
consequences of divided government in this sense. Taking theories of veto
bargaining as their point of departure, they test hypotheses derived from a
model of the anticipated reactions of government and opposition to the potential
veto that one house of parliament can impose on the other. The authors find that
when there are strong differences between the party composition of the two
houses, conflict and stalemate in the legislative process is less likely than
when the differences between the party compositions of the two houses is narrow.
This supports their hypothesis that government and opposition will compromise to
avoid intercameral vetoes when they are most likely to occur. Whether such
self-restraint under divided government occurs in other political systems is a
proposition that should be tested cross-nationally, taking into account the
differences in what constitutes divided government from one country to another.
The second article in this issue investigates a conventional belief that there
was a golden age of debate in the United States Senate before the Civil War, an
American version of a widespread nostalgia for a golden age of parliaments in
the 19th century. David Wirls offers four case studies of debate in both the
Senate and the House of Representatives, spanning the years 1819 to 1854, to
assess the scope and depth of debate in each house. Wirls measures the length of
debate, the educational background of the participants, and the extent of
newspaper
coverage. His analysis is an innovative attempt to develop empirical indicators
of the quality and extent of deliberation, something rare in legislative
literature. He discovers that while the antebellum House had fewer college
educated members than the Senate, these representatives so dominated debate that
debate by college educated members was in fact comparable in the two houses.
While each of Wirls’ four cases are necessarily limited to particular
legislative chambers at a particular time, the broader implication of Wirls’
research is that the quality of legislative deliberation is measurable and that
nostalgia for a golden age of parliaments can be subjected to empirical tests.
The third article in this issue tests whether the commonly assumed electoral
connection exists for legislators even in a weak party system like that of the
parliament of
Ukraine. Frank C. Thames analyzes the extensive switching of parties among members for
evidence that party turnover followed an electoral logic. Political parties are
important determinants of the reelection prospects of legislators in most
countries,
but in new democracies like
Ukraine they are relatively weak, ineffective, and ephemeral. Furthermore, in
Ukraine’s mixed-member electoral system only half the members are elected from party
lists. Thames traces the 527 party switches by deputies in the 1998—2002
session of
Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada for evidence that electoral
considerations motivated this
behavior. By means of an analysis of who switched and where they switched to, Thames
finds clear evidence that members switched to parties that had high levels of
electoral support and to parties closely aligned to the Ukrainian president
who influenced election results by the use of his patronage. Thames
suggests that this pattern of party switching, by reflecting the electoral
connection, may strengthen the new party system in the long run.
The role of anticipated reactions in the German legislative process, on which
the first article in this issue turns, comes up again in the article on
presidential influence in the U.S. Congress and in the final article on the
influence of supreme courts in the
U.S.
states on the introduction of bills in the area of education policy. Bryan W.
Marshall and Brandon C. Prins extend the large body of research on congressional
support for the president by taking into account the president’s anticipation
of congressional responses. The authors analyze all roll-call votes in the
U.S. House of Representatives between 1953 and 1998 and the position taken by
presidents on these issues. They use a two-stage model that considers the
president’s decision to take a position in the first place as well as his
success in obtaining support. The authors demonstrate that presidents take
positions selectively, influenced by their anticipation of congressional
support. Thus, they show that a president’s popularity influences
congressional support not only directly, as the existing literature
demonstrates, but indirectly, by influencing presidents’ selection of issues
on which to take a stand.
The electoral connection of members to their constituents, which is the subject
of the third article in this issue on party switching in
Ukraine, comes up again in the analysis of voluntary departures from Congress, the
topic of this issue’s fifth article. In view of the very high reelection rate
of members of the U.S. Congress, do
U.S.
congressional elections really hold members accountable? Jennifer Wolak
addresses this question by investigating whether public preferences influence
the propensity of members to retire voluntarily from Congress. She extends the
body of research that has investigated the individual level factors that
influence retirement. On average more members of Congress retire voluntarily
than are defeated for reelection. Retirement of an incumbent strongly affects
the subsequent election contest in that district, and retirements shift the
distribution of seniority within the chamber. Wolak analyzes aggregate data on
retirements from both houses of Congress over half a century beginning in 1954
to explore the influence not of individual factors but of electoral tides. She
shows that both changes in the party preferences of the electorate and changes
in party divisions in Congress influence the relative retirement rates of
Democrats and Republicans. The article provides evidence that while incumbents
are rarely defeated in the United States, movements in public opinion affect the composition of Congress by affecting
the rates of voluntary retirement, an indirect effect of the electoral
connection.
The final article is a comparative study across the
U.S.
states examining how judicial decisions affect education policy indirectly by
influencing legislators to tailor their proposed legislation to anticipated
court decisions. This is a piece in the developing literature on the influence
of courts on legislatures not by judicial review of legislative enactments but
by legislative anticipation of court decisions. Teena Wilhelm investigates the
preemptive power of the courts on legislative policy in the area of education in
the 50
U.S.
states between 1990 and 1999. She explains variance both in the number of
education bills introduced and the number enacted by the distance between the
ideological positions of the courts and the legislature in the area of
education, and by the propensity of courts to be active in this area. The
article demonstrates that courts do not only influence policy by judicial
review of legislation once passed but also by influencing the content of bills
that are introduced in the first place and, relatedly, the content of bills that
are enacted. It is an example of the value of comparative analysis across the
states of the
United States.
There is a tendency to despair about the isolated nature of much of legislative
research, about the impression it gives of producing unrelated results that at
best clarify narrow puzzles. But it is interesting to note that the six
articles in this issue of the Quarterly have common themes. The first
theme, the role of anticipated reactions in the relationship between houses in
a bicameral legislature, between the executive and the legislature, and between
legislatures and courts, is found in the articles by Manow and Burkhart, by
Marshall and Prins, and by Wilhelm. These three articles contribute to our
general understanding of inter-institutional relationships. The second theme, the
role of the electoral connection between members of legislatures and their
constituents, presumably central to an understanding of representation, is
addressed in the articles by Thames
and by Wolak. Research on common themes across political systems, as
exemplified in this issue of the Quarterly, demonstrates that comparative
research does have a shared agenda and can systematically contribute to our
general understanding of the legislative institution.