CHARLES S. BULLOCK III AND DAVID J. SHAFER
Party Targeting and Electoral Success
Legislative Studies Quarterly XXII:573-84
ORVIS, a measure of partisan strength calculated from the precinct-level vote share in previous statewide elections, has been used since 1988 to target Republican efforts in Georgia state legislative contests. The top-down approach implied in the use of this targeting device has paid dividends. Successful Republican challengers come disproportionately from districts with high ORVIS scores. The relationship between ORVIS scores and the share of the vote going to Republican candidates persists after factors such as campaign funding are controlled. The party's past success in statewide contests is a much better predictor of performance than is the showing in the previous legislative contest.